{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4e64767-4661-4add-9948-9175e0c30d4b", "symbol": "DFAE", "name": "DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST EMERGING CORE EQUITY MARKET ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.27, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.618, "architecture_energy": 15.123, "architecture_maturity": 28.81, "architecture_confidence": 95.332, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.46, "rotation_up": 21.05, "upward_expansion": 46.98, "deceleration": 84.42, "rotation_down": 38.97, "downward_expansion": 29.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.030667, 38.489477, 38.630815, 37.967224 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.83, "trend_reference": 37.103543, "distance_from_trend": 0.046531, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.940836, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.389722, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.070299, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.09153, "excess_performance": -0.034095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046531, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062231, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.389722, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117399, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114056, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09153, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.14606, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5450381, "relative_activity": 0.901172, "balance": 1.14606, "dry_up": 1.121822, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056472, "annualized_volatility": 0.268499, "from_high_reference": -0.074067, "from_low_reference": 0.330245 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.103543, "fair_value_reference": 27.940836, "structural_low": 32.54, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.027728, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.005815, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.077047, "worst_return": -0.061436, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.072396, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.040604, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.100122, "worst_return": 0.04467, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.149264, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.087616, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149264, "worst_return": 0.149264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.861724, "energy": 37.761741, "activity_lines": [ 39.567403, 39.500686, 38.561364, 37.693183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.37, "volume": 6505659, "typical_volume": 6144492.8, "trend": 36.638966, "fair_value": 27.647259, "relative_strength": 0.492063, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.687606, "energy": 17.613682, "activity_lines": [ 38.755826, 39.12476, 38.553306, 37.751939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.36, "volume": 4538181, "typical_volume": 5980036.1, "trend": 36.797347, "fair_value": 27.737529, "relative_strength": 0.901547, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.890502, "energy": 17.661516, "activity_lines": [ 38.106667, 38.794932, 38.543256, 37.798457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.52, "volume": 10645345, "typical_volume": 6154146.6, "trend": 36.936766, "fair_value": 27.833451, "relative_strength": 0.09152, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.762597, "energy": 13.423724, "activity_lines": [ 37.787333, 38.511008, 38.533424, 37.84508 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.83, "volume": 5450381, "typical_volume": 6048102.4, "trend": 37.103543, "fair_value": 27.940836, "relative_strength": -0.070299, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.617798, "energy": 15.12279, "activity_lines": [ 38.030667, 38.489477, 38.630815, 37.967224 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }