{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4e6b51b-2223-4dc5-865f-3e5c8cd768a1", "symbol": "FDX", "name": "FedEx Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.648, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.848, "architecture_energy": 82.628, "architecture_maturity": 18.393, "architecture_confidence": 81.582, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.06, "rotation_up": 23.75, "upward_expansion": 20.9, "deceleration": 37.61, "rotation_down": 62.77, "downward_expansion": 96.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 5418.9, 5474.290897, 5774.070823, 5958.344953 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5460.0, "trend_reference": 6079.295168, "distance_from_trend": -0.10187, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5012.324554, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.089315, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.200137, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.13218, "excess_performance": -0.077514, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10187, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024651, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.089315, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.241379, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022001, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172922, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.13218, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.925318, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 939, "relative_activity": 0.668899, "balance": 6.925318, "dry_up": 0.307914, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036857, "annualized_volatility": 0.35249, "from_high_reference": -0.222611, "from_low_reference": 0.321068 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6079.295168, "fair_value_reference": 5012.324554, "structural_low": 5316.200195, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.007594, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.031026, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.170534, "worst_return": -0.141822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022708, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.008827, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.196598, "worst_return": -0.124224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.096984, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.119491, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.462211, "worst_return": -0.139694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.380848, "energy": 80.613102, "activity_lines": [ 5460.806022, 5567.692195, 5911.614211, 6047.61404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5322.0, "volume": 790, "typical_volume": 1361.25, "trend": 6084.920965, "fair_value": 5005.954233, "relative_strength": -4.484116, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.7725, "energy": 84.427024, "activity_lines": [ 5409.254004, 5494.65924, 5834.156803, 5998.662435 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5460.0, "volume": 939, "typical_volume": 1403.8, "trend": 6079.295168, "fair_value": 5012.324554, "relative_strength": -2.200137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.848389, "energy": 82.62814, "activity_lines": [ 5418.9, 5474.290897, 5774.070823, 5958.344953 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }