{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c4e84338-4c4b-4624-8207-b6d7919633fc",
    "symbol": "CEPS",
    "name": "CEPS PLC",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 63.795,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -39.203,
    "architecture_energy": 56.666,
    "architecture_maturity": 41.388,
    "architecture_confidence": 85.271,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.62,
        "rotation_up": 14.19,
        "upward_expansion": 29.95,
        "deceleration": 51.23,
        "rotation_down": 73.08,
        "downward_expansion": 50.62
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.4,
        0.410455,
        0.42069,
        0.416419
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 0.39,
    "trend_reference": 0.402,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.029851,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 0.289455,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.347359,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -2.598538,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.258065,
    "excess_performance": 0.206829,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.029851,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.06162,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.347359,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.152976,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.025985,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.299227,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.258065,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.668906,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 100283,
      "relative_activity": 2.352186,
      "balance": 0.668906,
      "dry_up": 0.58834,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.045464,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.323028,
      "from_high_reference": -0.218123,
      "from_low_reference": 0.56
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.402,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.289455,
      "structural_low": 0.295,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.011364,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.014375,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.324675,
        "worst_return": -0.174757,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.022727,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008017,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.25974,
        "worst_return": -0.282051,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.131178,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.14372,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.337662,
        "worst_return": -0.294872,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.077922,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.03346,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.522727,
        "worst_return": -0.525641,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-09-15",
        "end": "2023-11-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.04878,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2023-11-10",
        "end": "2023-11-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-11-24",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.403226,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.061224,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.022222,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.022727,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.088889,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.04878,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.12766,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.066667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.265625,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.115385,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.103448,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 5346.65,
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        "relative_strength": 2.541311,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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        "typical_volume": 111515.8,
        "trend": 0.367833,
        "fair_value": 0.286603,
        "relative_strength": 27.324143,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 52.591363,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 119947.0,
        "trend": 0.371667,
        "fair_value": 0.286987,
        "relative_strength": 32.245398,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.579414,
        "energy": 66.301106,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 118920.55,
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        "relative_strength": 26.093822,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 115391.65,
        "trend": 0.378667,
        "fair_value": 0.287628,
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 52.069923,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 23728,
        "typical_volume": 116578.05,
        "trend": 0.382,
        "fair_value": 0.287917,
        "relative_strength": 22.309437,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 116577.15,
        "trend": 0.3845,
        "fair_value": 0.288205,
        "relative_strength": 19.939596,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 116206.05,
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        "relative_strength": 20.029672,
        "stage": 2,
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        "energy": 33.223843,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 115788.5,
        "trend": 0.391167,
        "fair_value": 0.288782,
        "relative_strength": 17.282825,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.738657,
        "energy": 31.383338,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.435,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 81574.55,
        "trend": 0.394667,
        "fair_value": 0.289071,
        "relative_strength": 14.384886,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.28782,
        "energy": 30.994251,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 0.405,
        "volume": 68970,
        "typical_volume": 51961.55,
        "trend": 0.396,
        "fair_value": 0.289167,
        "relative_strength": 7.560344,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 17.377596,
        "energy": 14.360568,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.425,
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          0.428619,
          0.415645
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.405,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 48263.0,
        "trend": 0.397333,
        "fair_value": 0.289263,
        "relative_strength": 5.766597,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -3.617861,
        "energy": 15.598539,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.417,
          0.425273,
          0.427048,
          0.416226
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.405,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 43301.45,
        "trend": 0.399,
        "fair_value": 0.289359,
        "relative_strength": 3.708132,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -8.172365,
        "energy": 26.543804,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.411,
          0.420455,
          0.425476,
          0.41672
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.405,
        "volume": 50,
        "typical_volume": 41054.8,
        "trend": 0.400667,
        "fair_value": 0.289455,
        "relative_strength": 1.808814,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -8.201204,
        "energy": 31.393317,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.407,
          0.416455,
          0.423833,
          0.417108
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.39,
        "volume": 100283,
        "typical_volume": 42633.95,
        "trend": 0.402,
        "fair_value": 0.289455,
        "relative_strength": -2.598538,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -39.203198,
        "energy": 56.666379,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.4,
          0.410455,
          0.42069,
          0.416419
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}