{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4e91a22-9952-47c3-86a6-63cca4a69715", "symbol": "002888", "name": "HiVi Acoustics Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.695, "architecture_energy": 70.98, "architecture_maturity": 15.407, "architecture_confidence": 78.257, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.92, "rotation_up": 8.46, "upward_expansion": 15.61, "deceleration": 37.12, "rotation_down": 73.12, "downward_expansion": 88.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.250667, 17.636727, 18.714694, 19.048721 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.24, "trend_reference": 19.53725, "distance_from_trend": -0.117583, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.499404, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014824, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.775737, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173091, "excess_performance": -0.180491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117583, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011635, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014824, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197846, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137757, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004208, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173091, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.531328, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16599379, "relative_activity": 0.944798, "balance": 1.531328, "dry_up": 1.015617, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149074, "annualized_volatility": 0.568416, "from_high_reference": -0.325365, "from_low_reference": 0.283693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.53725, "fair_value_reference": 17.499404, "structural_low": 13.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.054574, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.061969, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.283384, "worst_return": -0.077875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.2914, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.121795, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.490909, "worst_return": 0.030212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.278358, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.202028, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.351779, "worst_return": 0.092805, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"activity_lines": [ 18.69, 19.531075, 19.675627, 19.781031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.0, "volume": 20619242, "typical_volume": 17017304.05, "trend": 19.75571, "fair_value": 17.468757, "relative_strength": -23.109932, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.454942, "energy": 69.427127, "activity_lines": [ 17.118, 18.592169, 19.239052, 19.466565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.65, "volume": 15837280, "typical_volume": 17242060.05, "trend": 19.61088, "fair_value": 17.476984, "relative_strength": -18.041334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.759983, "energy": 74.126266, "activity_lines": [ 16.215333, 17.903056, 18.890956, 19.201681 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.24, "volume": 16599379, "typical_volume": 17569241.0, "trend": 19.53725, "fair_value": 17.499404, "relative_strength": -13.775737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.694588, "energy": 70.980345, "activity_lines": [ 16.250667, 17.636727, 18.714694, 19.048721 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }