{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4e927b5-8f9c-4b77-87d3-9d173767f525", "symbol": "SXLK", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Technology Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.586, "architecture_energy": 50.053, "architecture_maturity": 62.31, "architecture_confidence": 62.38, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.9, "rotation_up": 43.72, "upward_expansion": 76.17, "deceleration": 73.94, "rotation_down": 28.59, "downward_expansion": 7.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 181.042667, 180.238182, 176.924952, 170.260344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 189.259995, "trend_reference": 162.544666, "distance_from_trend": 0.164357, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 126.163205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.50012, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.662147, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.248252, "excess_performance": 0.145384, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.164357, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060185, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.50012, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112685, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.086621, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0105, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.248252, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.769702, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22469, "relative_activity": 2.213815, "balance": 1.769702, "dry_up": 1.488036, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041416, "annualized_volatility": 0.253139, "from_high_reference": -0.002214, "from_low_reference": 0.399024 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 162.544666, "fair_value_reference": 126.163205, "structural_low": 135.279999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003069, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.013449, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.10067, "worst_return": -0.056488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.084103, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.003696, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14725, "worst_return": -0.140595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.177016, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.136068, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.233142, "worst_return": 0.001771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.050501, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002619, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01991, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006228, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", 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180.117331, 171.860726, 160.923427, 157.468515 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 179.440002, "volume": 8026, "typical_volume": 14122.45, "trend": 154.993333, "fair_value": 121.571731, "relative_strength": 11.341848, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.367909, "energy": 87.88758, "activity_lines": [ 180.907998, 174.745454, 163.229999, 159.103096 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 185.639999, "volume": 5362, "typical_volume": 13458.3, "trend": 156.177999, "fair_value": 122.181154, "relative_strength": 14.051498, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.363509, "energy": 83.395955, "activity_lines": [ 182.761332, 177.984363, 166.001999, 161.0803 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 175.639999, "volume": 1963, "typical_volume": 13108.55, "trend": 157.206666, "fair_value": 122.745257, "relative_strength": 4.569526, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.805349, "energy": 65.12289, "activity_lines": [ 180.634666, 178.591636, 167.658666, 162.335913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 178.080002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11515.55, "trend": 158.050666, "fair_value": 123.3075, "relative_strength": 3.952225, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.716867, "energy": 60.549888, "activity_lines": [ 179.564, 179.149818, 169.433333, 163.68258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 182.279999, "volume": 9360, "typical_volume": 11187.5, "trend": 158.974666, "fair_value": 123.903398, "relative_strength": 7.537278, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.138115, "energy": 57.08867, "activity_lines": [ 180.090667, 180.154909, 171.448095, 165.245763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 175.600006, "volume": 12542, "typical_volume": 10149.8, "trend": 159.758, "fair_value": 124.439103, "relative_strength": 2.663859, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.509247, "energy": 43.075898, "activity_lines": [ 178.552002, 179.601819, 172.651048, 166.318365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 178.779999, "volume": 8252, "typical_volume": 10151.55, "trend": 160.668666, "fair_value": 124.994936, "relative_strength": 4.47879, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.073065, "energy": 44.620932, "activity_lines": [ 178.329335, 179.42291, 174.01981, 167.545591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 174.880005, "volume": 17148, "typical_volume": 9725.5, "trend": 161.392666, "fair_value": 125.523077, "relative_strength": 1.967753, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.803932, "energy": 36.44261, "activity_lines": [ 177.264003, 178.483274, 174.857429, 168.462452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 189.259995, "volume": 22469, "typical_volume": 10149.45, "trend": 162.544666, "fair_value": 126.163205, "relative_strength": 8.662147, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.585523, "energy": 50.052841, "activity_lines": [ 181.042667, 180.238182, 176.924952, 170.260344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }