{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4ea6f5e-cea5-4172-a309-3ffbb337e7b5", "symbol": "EXTX", "name": "EXACT Therapeutics AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.482, "architecture_energy": 59.26, "architecture_maturity": 89.033, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 29.07, "upward_expansion": 11.4, "deceleration": 60.11, "rotation_down": 51.27, "downward_expansion": 84.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.704333, 0.719455, 0.889667, 1.100602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.75, "trend_reference": 1.38, "distance_from_trend": -0.456522, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.311603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.8588, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -59.340524, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.601064, "excess_performance": -0.726058, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.456522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172992, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.8588, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081013, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.593405, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1571, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.601064, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.416037, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102143, "relative_activity": 0.398816, "balance": 0.416037, "dry_up": 0.313497, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.252821, "annualized_volatility": 1.010196, "from_high_reference": -0.748322, "from_low_reference": 0.293103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.38, "fair_value_reference": 5.311603, "structural_low": 0.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.033559, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.042936, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 0.458333, "worst_return": -0.452899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.172414, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.188516, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.283333, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.195195, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.262874, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.107595, "worst_return": -0.716387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "red", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.026549, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.225, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008065, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.77, "active": 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"relative_strength": -62.609116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.536262, "energy": 81.331953, "activity_lines": [ 0.723667, 0.788909, 1.042286, 1.248366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.67, "volume": 142111, "typical_volume": 261189.95, "trend": 1.459667, "fair_value": 5.450577, "relative_strength": -65.38564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.263529, "energy": 65.467299, "activity_lines": [ 0.701, 0.748545, 0.983048, 1.195699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.67, "volume": 26290, "typical_volume": 257507.55, "trend": 1.434333, "fair_value": 5.383718, "relative_strength": -64.496073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.991685, "energy": 64.117371, "activity_lines": [ 0.685, 0.719455, 0.928905, 1.144753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.75, "volume": 102143, "typical_volume": 256115.45, "trend": 1.38, "fair_value": 5.311603, "relative_strength": -59.340524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.482063, "energy": 59.260401, "activity_lines": [ 0.704333, 0.719455, 0.889667, 1.100602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }