{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4ee1370-d69f-4d20-92fa-679510cb9b01", "symbol": "3354", "name": "Microcosm Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.375, "architecture_energy": 76.828, "architecture_maturity": 24.64, "architecture_confidence": 87.256, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.36, "rotation_up": 9.3, "upward_expansion": 18.11, "deceleration": 37.12, "rotation_down": 76.15, "downward_expansion": 93.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.666667, 22.486364, 25.467857, 26.276667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.700001, "trend_reference": 26.988333, "distance_from_trend": -0.233002, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.229515, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.024942, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.971574, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101952, "excess_performance": -0.543324, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.233002, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036352, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.024942, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.655863, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.359716, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.432115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101952, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.429884, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 527077, "relative_activity": 0.112388, "balance": 0.429884, "dry_up": 0.158618, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.175399, "annualized_volatility": 0.710817, "from_high_reference": -0.449468, "from_low_reference": 0.361842 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.988333, "fair_value_reference": 21.229515, "structural_low": 18.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.039474, "positive_rate": 0.764706, "directional_follow_through": 0.235294, "median_excess_return": 0.005489, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.419431, "worst_return": -0.241895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.091483, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.028522, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.77305, "worst_return": -0.226852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.065, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.020044, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.56383, "worst_return": -0.208202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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39.900223, "activity_lines": [ 25.186667, 26.97, 28.174524, 28.045377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 1032361, "typical_volume": 5709185.95, "trend": 27.75, "fair_value": 21.114094, "relative_strength": -30.824152, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.740743, "energy": 62.405217, "activity_lines": [ 23.796667, 25.713636, 27.544524, 27.663871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.799999, "volume": 881059, "typical_volume": 5113181.0, "trend": 27.465, "fair_value": 21.149676, "relative_strength": -35.947483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.179109, "energy": 71.970298, "activity_lines": [ 22.153333, 24.297272, 26.752143, 27.150968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.4, "volume": 535055, "typical_volume": 4791854.75, "trend": 27.186667, "fair_value": 21.189105, "relative_strength": -35.134331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.759838, "energy": 77.860803, "activity_lines": [ 21.123333, 23.261818, 26.077143, 26.695161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 20.700001, "volume": 527077, "typical_volume": 4689798.95, "trend": 26.988333, "fair_value": 21.229515, "relative_strength": -35.971574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.374706, "energy": 76.827962, "activity_lines": [ 20.666667, 22.486364, 25.467857, 26.276667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }