{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4f6eb2a-8bd9-480a-9480-751a60bd82fd", "symbol": "BLZ", "name": "Advanced Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.491, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.793, "architecture_energy": 30.42, "architecture_maturity": 17.346, "architecture_confidence": 66.164, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.13, "rotation_up": 27.05, "upward_expansion": 61.05, "deceleration": 76.84, "rotation_down": 24.79, "downward_expansion": 18.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.136, 0.136745, 0.132914, 0.131112 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.136, "trend_reference": 0.130433, "distance_from_trend": 0.042678, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.128583, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.05768, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.46641, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014925, "excess_performance": -0.13991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042678, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021016, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.05768, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144664, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.240866, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014925, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.319688, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38000, "relative_activity": 0.645107, "balance": 6.319688, "dry_up": 1.656905, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054864, "annualized_volatility": 1.309118, "from_high_reference": -0.190476, "from_low_reference": 0.789474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.130433, "fair_value_reference": 0.128583, "structural_low": 0.076, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.038735, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028732, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.05, "worst_return": -0.225641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.114504, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.118451, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.358974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.175573, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.335535, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.364103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.236641, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.302785, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.5125, "worst_return": -0.27, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122137, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008264, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.150442, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.123077, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.084, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 67395.0, "trend": 0.080433, "fair_value": 0.082526, "relative_strength": 11.388995, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.619125, "energy": 47.572047, "activity_lines": [ 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"volume": 59800, "typical_volume": 46545.0, "trend": 0.130233, "fair_value": 0.127654, "relative_strength": -12.159598, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.431287, "energy": 52.653446, "activity_lines": [ 0.138467, 0.135582, 0.130486, 0.130022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.136, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 42525.0, "trend": 0.130433, "fair_value": 0.127974, "relative_strength": -13.270388, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.357184, "energy": 27.087168, "activity_lines": [ 0.137533, 0.136164, 0.131324, 0.130394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.136, "volume": 289600, "typical_volume": 57005.0, "trend": 0.130433, "fair_value": 0.12825, "relative_strength": -13.723636, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.57311, "energy": 25.302792, "activity_lines": [ 0.135933, 0.136545, 0.132133, 0.130753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.136, "volume": 38000, "typical_volume": 58905.0, "trend": 0.130433, "fair_value": 0.128583, "relative_strength": -14.46641, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.792747, "energy": 30.420173, "activity_lines": [ 0.136, 0.136745, 0.132914, 0.131112 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }