{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4f8391f-b48b-4e69-9782-363a341ccd31", "symbol": "HRL-F28", "name": "Harel Index Funds Ltd. - Harel Sal (4D) MSCI Emerging Markets", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.115, "architecture_energy": 63.487, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 56.855, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.88, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 47.31, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.270667, 78.992364, 2032.000381, 3502.194796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 82.23, "trend_reference": 5246.541667, "distance_from_trend": -0.984327, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6891.674679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988068, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.898626, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989971, "excess_performance": -1.018871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984327, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.341612, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.988068, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.032372, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988986, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.672238, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989971, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.709067, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57538, "relative_activity": 1.444171, "balance": 1.709067, "dry_up": 1.894944, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.508031, "annualized_volatility": 6.355021, "from_high_reference": -0.990681, "from_low_reference": 0.097278 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5246.541667, "fair_value_reference": 6891.674679, "structural_low": 74.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.011503, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.681818, "median_excess_return": -0.035687, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.177917, "worst_return": -0.989694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.028049, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.11519, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.303137, "worst_return": -0.990108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.110357, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.155149, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.483061, "worst_return": -0.144483, "sufficient": 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003289, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07387, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.16694, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014531, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027212, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", 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"fair_value": 6968.037051, "relative_strength": -99.029768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.960585, "energy": 68.004182, "activity_lines": [ 77.918667, 480.666909, 2849.230857, 4222.280172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.24, "volume": 119456, "typical_volume": 38533.35, "trend": 5525.300667, "fair_value": 6929.173205, "relative_strength": -98.940644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.550098, "energy": 67.349883, "activity_lines": [ 79.082, 211.987273, 2422.459524, 3853.360645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.23, "volume": 57538, "typical_volume": 39841.55, "trend": 5246.541667, "fair_value": 6891.674679, "relative_strength": -98.898626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.115438, "energy": 63.486984, "activity_lines": [ 80.270667, 78.992364, 2032.000381, 3502.194796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }