{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4f9b78a-3e81-43a7-b5b0-8f7187f96db6", "symbol": "BEAUTY", "name": "Beauty Community Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.457, "architecture_energy": 37.138, "architecture_maturity": 27.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.384, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.43, "rotation_up": 17.16, "upward_expansion": 7.85, "deceleration": 40.94, "rotation_down": 55.42, "downward_expansion": 78.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.356667, 0.362182, 0.366048, 0.366731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.35, "trend_reference": 0.373333, "distance_from_trend": -0.0625, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.438846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.202454, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.777703, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.054054, "excess_performance": -0.246379, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0625, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101844, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.202454, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008487, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307777, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084631, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054054, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.636517, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116792000, "relative_activity": 3.502829, "balance": 2.636517, "dry_up": 2.42248, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076923, "annualized_volatility": 0.421139, "from_high_reference": -0.485294, "from_low_reference": 0.296296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.373333, "fair_value_reference": 0.438846, "structural_low": 0.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.027027, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.02282, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.633333, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.071856, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.075171, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.068966, "worst_return": -0.36, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.083507, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.081247, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.724138, "worst_return": -0.54, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.221557, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.189855, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.06, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-24", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.519685, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.241935, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040816, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.22, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.645161, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.188679, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078947, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.51, "volume": 60459800, "typical_volume": 62688440.0, "trend": 0.963667, "fair_value": 1.392564, "relative_strength": -51.905298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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18.820517, "activity_lines": [ 0.367333, 0.370545, 0.368095, 0.373161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.38, "volume": 156153000, "typical_volume": 32342840.0, "trend": 0.387333, "fair_value": 0.441987, "relative_strength": -26.370125, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.52761, "energy": 11.237471, "activity_lines": [ 0.371333, 0.372, 0.369524, 0.37243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.36, "volume": 27697500, "typical_volume": 31002035.0, "trend": 0.383, "fair_value": 0.440962, "relative_strength": -30.32629, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.219998, "energy": 17.827979, "activity_lines": [ 0.367333, 0.369636, 0.369095, 0.370667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.35, "volume": 22440700, "typical_volume": 29454280.0, "trend": 0.378, "fair_value": 0.439872, "relative_strength": -31.367172, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.331607, "energy": 31.164997, "activity_lines": [ 0.361333, 0.365636, 0.367571, 0.368538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.35, "volume": 116792000, "typical_volume": 33342195.0, "trend": 0.373333, "fair_value": 0.438846, "relative_strength": -30.777703, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.456799, "energy": 37.13779, "activity_lines": [ 0.356667, 0.362182, 0.366048, 0.366731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }