{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4fc4768-e121-452f-9262-2fffd8636008", "symbol": "EDMW", "name": "iShares MSCI World CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.338, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.262, "architecture_energy": 79.855, "architecture_maturity": 43.413, "architecture_confidence": 88.18, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.45, "rotation_up": 66.52, "upward_expansion": 91.28, "deceleration": 48.42, "rotation_down": 25.23, "downward_expansion": 15.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.2156, 12.128509, 12.000581, 11.788146 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.528, "trend_reference": 11.5544, "distance_from_trend": 0.084262, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.529578, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.314644, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.705527, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.11618, "excess_performance": 0.033296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084262, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033476, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.314644, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020353, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007055, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060179, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11618, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 18.598301, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104482, "relative_activity": 0.50403, "balance": 18.598301, "dry_up": 0.27809, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015129, "annualized_volatility": 0.135708, "from_high_reference": -0.001276, "from_low_reference": 0.219626 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.5544, "fair_value_reference": 9.529578, "structural_low": 10.384, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.014364, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.004056, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.056251, "worst_return": -0.074758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.024805, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001879, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.082055, "worst_return": -0.054283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.071436, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.033296, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.130414, "worst_return": -0.198983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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9.408796, "relative_strength": -0.441226, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.691868, "energy": 62.349452, "activity_lines": [ 12.036533, 12.017455, 11.782324, 11.60671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.054, "volume": 58991, "typical_volume": 236512.5, "trend": 11.451533, "fair_value": 9.437937, "relative_strength": -1.850189, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.748715, "energy": 63.38488, "activity_lines": [ 12.051867, 12.029418, 11.832676, 11.64791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.01, "volume": 15083, "typical_volume": 229607.0, "trend": 11.481067, "fair_value": 9.466494, "relative_strength": -2.050585, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.151599, "energy": 71.071581, "activity_lines": [ 12.045467, 12.029127, 11.875362, 11.68394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.08, "volume": 52029, "typical_volume": 221327.7, "trend": 11.511733, "fair_value": 9.496353, "relative_strength": -1.560109, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.95402, "energy": 60.932066, "activity_lines": [ 12.065333, 12.038873, 11.919733, 11.722581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.528, "volume": 104482, "typical_volume": 207293.2, "trend": 11.5544, "fair_value": 9.529578, "relative_strength": 0.705527, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.261733, "energy": 79.855341, "activity_lines": [ 12.2156, 12.128509, 12.000581, 11.788146 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }