{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4fd8973-fe67-4df2-abff-9674fbae690e", "symbol": "AREIT", "name": "Altareit SCA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.666, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.084, "architecture_energy": 30.669, "architecture_maturity": 62.923, "architecture_confidence": 92.191, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.69, "rotation_up": 14.99, "upward_expansion": 50.5, "deceleration": 87.46, "rotation_down": 35.38, "downward_expansion": 27.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 585.0, 585.0, 587.357143, 586.870968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 585.0, "trend_reference": 579.166667, "distance_from_trend": 0.010072, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 502.735897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.163633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.055742, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.073394, "excess_performance": 0.020083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010072, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037623, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.163633, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024436, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020557, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1066, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073394, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5, "relative_activity": 1.265823, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 1.202532, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001315, "annualized_volatility": 0.100872, "from_high_reference": -0.016807, "from_low_reference": 0.147059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 579.166667, "fair_value_reference": 502.735897, "structural_low": 540.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.008697, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.065217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.006402, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.015504, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.134454, "worst_return": -0.086957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.050675, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.045482, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.113208, "worst_return": -0.217391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.07563, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.119819, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.114719, "worst_return": -0.196522, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017391, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.035957, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001437, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058468, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039216, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091743, "active": false }, { "regime": 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501.389743, "relative_strength": 1.651173, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.342727, "energy": 33.425231, "activity_lines": [ 587.0, 589.636364, 590.571429, 580.043011 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 585.0, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 4.85, "trend": 565.5, "fair_value": 501.517948, "relative_strength": 2.028806, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.814031, "energy": 49.485433, "activity_lines": [ 585.666667, 588.545455, 590.428571, 581.419355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 585.0, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 4.6, "trend": 567.333333, "fair_value": 501.646154, "relative_strength": 0.517663, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.800466, "energy": 43.303035, "activity_lines": [ 585.0, 587.636364, 590.095238, 582.677419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 585.0, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 4.3, "trend": 569.666667, "fair_value": 501.774359, "relative_strength": 2.430042, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.136536, "energy": 36.730704, "activity_lines": [ 585.0, 586.818182, 589.547619, 583.817204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 585.0, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 4.05, "trend": 572.0, "fair_value": 501.838461, "relative_strength": 2.30792, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.096196, "energy": 31.789656, "activity_lines": [ 585.0, 586.090909, 588.928571, 584.806452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 585.0, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 4.05, "trend": 574.333333, "fair_value": 502.06282, "relative_strength": 1.780762, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.151073, "energy": 29.755738, "activity_lines": [ 585.0, 585.545455, 588.357143, 585.645161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 585.0, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 4.0, "trend": 576.666667, "fair_value": 502.415384, "relative_strength": 0.161038, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.922369, "energy": 27.312379, "activity_lines": [ 585.0, 585.181818, 587.833333, 586.333333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 585.0, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 3.95, "trend": 579.166667, "fair_value": 502.735897, "relative_strength": -2.055742, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.083518, "energy": 30.668501, "activity_lines": [ 585.0, 585.0, 587.357143, 586.870968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }