{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c503c910-f680-4e80-8fc9-592375e9b40e", "symbol": "PSMJ", "name": "PACER SWAN SOS MODERATE (JULY) ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.133, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.882, "architecture_energy": 72.756, "architecture_maturity": 65.311, "architecture_confidence": 71.682, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.07, "rotation_up": 64.95, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.09, "rotation_down": 24.29, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.040373, 33.901375, 33.699186, 33.382648 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.475, "trend_reference": 33.007077, "distance_from_trend": 0.044473, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.744358, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199366, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.247103, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.066347, "excess_performance": -0.059278, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044473, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019102, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.199366, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000372, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052471, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002826, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066347, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.298578, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24018, "relative_activity": 1.263839, "balance": 3.298578, "dry_up": 1.173108, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008019, "annualized_volatility": 0.055787, "from_high_reference": -0.003613, "from_low_reference": 0.119682 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.007077, "fair_value_reference": 28.744358, "structural_low": 31.3426, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.009274, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.004123, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 0.039681, "worst_return": -0.039804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.028511, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.011818, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.085643, "worst_return": -0.036226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.06137, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.030932, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.121934, "worst_return": 0.042252, "sufficient": true 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"typical_volume": 18233.9, "trend": 32.93791, "fair_value": 28.675313, "relative_strength": -3.613332, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.022871, "energy": 66.598357, "activity_lines": [ 33.821173, 33.765138, 33.582505, 33.283481 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.475, "volume": 24018, "typical_volume": 19004.0, "trend": 33.007077, "fair_value": 28.744358, "relative_strength": -5.247103, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.882272, "energy": 72.756227, "activity_lines": [ 34.040373, 33.901375, 33.699186, 33.382648 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }