{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c50d7e7f-3caf-4021-b338-989eb98c51bd", "symbol": "STWX", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Europe Health Care UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.309, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 15.831, "architecture_energy": 15.607, "architecture_maturity": 17.428, "architecture_confidence": 64.172, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.8, "rotation_up": 35.5, "upward_expansion": 33.12, "deceleration": 45.18, "rotation_down": 27.75, "downward_expansion": 19.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 231.19, 231.191819, 228.050477, 227.460323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 231.899994, "trend_reference": 228.353334, "distance_from_trend": 0.015531, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 217.010577, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068611, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.773746, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.012351, "excess_performance": -0.183243, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015531, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011106, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068611, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06256, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107737, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014409, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012351, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.345068, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5993, "relative_activity": 2.568575, "balance": 1.345068, "dry_up": 2.150373, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029754, "annualized_volatility": 0.17946, "from_high_reference": -0.055012, "from_low_reference": 0.194868 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 228.353334, "fair_value_reference": 217.010577, "structural_low": 209.899994, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.000657, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.015885, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.076699, "worst_return": -0.079582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.060607, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004025, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124767, "worst_return": -0.098657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.075789, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.072219, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.102971, 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41.888381, "energy": 53.885203, "activity_lines": [ 231.196666, 227.295454, 225.149285, 226.43043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 231.600006, "volume": 7180, "typical_volume": 2360.2, "trend": 227.79, "fair_value": 216.226731, "relative_strength": -9.664111, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.78939, "energy": 47.859972, "activity_lines": [ 232.256669, 228.610909, 225.710476, 226.699893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 230.600006, "volume": 2296, "typical_volume": 1984.65, "trend": 228.043333, "fair_value": 216.416154, "relative_strength": -8.613476, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.148021, "energy": 48.708979, "activity_lines": [ 232.436671, 229.512729, 226.22881, 226.881183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 231.850006, "volume": 6298, "typical_volume": 1949.4, "trend": 228.271667, "fair_value": 216.620577, "relative_strength": -7.779024, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.703237, "energy": 48.348148, "activity_lines": [ 232.653339, 230.376366, 226.908335, 227.126775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 230.0, "volume": 5482, "typical_volume": 2078.8, "trend": 228.458334, "fair_value": 216.830449, "relative_strength": -9.009137, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.113332, "energy": 21.72112, "activity_lines": [ 231.49667, 230.655457, 227.404049, 227.23828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 231.899994, "volume": 5993, "typical_volume": 2333.2, "trend": 228.353334, "fair_value": 217.010577, "relative_strength": -10.773746, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.831395, "energy": 15.607496, "activity_lines": [ 231.19, 231.191819, 228.050477, 227.460323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }