{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5186ac9-a5a6-4738-8ff8-5236fa8610e6", "symbol": "IPRA", "name": "iShares Listed Private Equity UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.569, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 50.575, "architecture_energy": 42.565, "architecture_maturity": 8.274, "architecture_confidence": 72.993, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.18, "rotation_up": 65.39, "upward_expansion": 44.1, "deceleration": 35.45, "rotation_down": 16.64, "downward_expansion": 16.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.260333, 36.619545, 36.507286, 36.443733 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 38.884998, "trend_reference": 36.91284, "distance_from_trend": 0.053427, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.118054, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047603, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.078478, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.007026, "excess_performance": -0.109637, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053427, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036613, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047603, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009911, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110785, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011727, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007026, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.563878, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10460, "relative_activity": 0.642275, "balance": 3.563878, "dry_up": 1.601805, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0318, "annualized_volatility": 0.235587, "from_high_reference": -0.121265, "from_low_reference": 0.168771 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.91284, "fair_value_reference": 37.118054, "structural_low": 33.27, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004885, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017651, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.119532, "worst_return": -0.082253, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.024367, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026204, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.116659, "worst_return": -0.165393, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.081594, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.146394, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.02399, "worst_return": -0.139199, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057013, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000763, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046943, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013003, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011307, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", 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36.005001, "volume": 33855, "typical_volume": 19299.1, "trend": 37.49782, "fair_value": 36.88721, "relative_strength": -17.953504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.792063, "energy": 38.344423, "activity_lines": [ 35.670334, 35.880637, 36.083785, 36.485853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.720001, "volume": 31109, "typical_volume": 20091.55, "trend": 37.355167, "fair_value": 36.941292, "relative_strength": -16.321519, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.389027, "energy": 20.912298, "activity_lines": [ 36.004, 35.980909, 36.15905, 36.435671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.165001, "volume": 10721, "typical_volume": 16553.6, "trend": 37.184423, "fair_value": 36.991708, "relative_strength": -16.811498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.869563, "energy": 14.875927, "activity_lines": [ 36.136001, 35.997819, 36.180373, 36.358886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.634998, "volume": 52057, "typical_volume": 16857.2, "trend": 37.020447, "fair_value": 37.046668, "relative_strength": -15.848648, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.995009, "energy": 14.543758, "activity_lines": [ 36.385, 36.105818, 36.242994, 36.323439 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.884998, "volume": 10460, "typical_volume": 16285.85, "trend": 36.91284, "fair_value": 37.118054, "relative_strength": -11.078478, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.574799, "energy": 42.564626, "activity_lines": [ 37.260333, 36.619545, 36.507286, 36.443733 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }