{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c519a9f1-dd5c-4551-88d5-c735f30635f2", "symbol": "CHNR", "name": "China Natural Resources Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 87.199, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -3.427, "architecture_energy": 9.028, "architecture_maturity": 43.318, "architecture_confidence": 43.674, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.9, "rotation_up": 25.27, "upward_expansion": 16.17, "deceleration": 56.96, "rotation_down": 42.48, "downward_expansion": 41.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.849667, 3.877091, 3.962524, 3.960323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.1, "trend_reference": 3.936727, "distance_from_trend": 0.041474, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.401199, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.359495, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.476796, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.145251, "excess_performance": -0.042202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041474, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0138, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.359495, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062681, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124768, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004553, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145251, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.455567, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40267, "relative_activity": 0.118003, "balance": 0.455567, "dry_up": 0.587024, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142128, "annualized_volatility": 0.647492, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.297468 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.936727, "fair_value_reference": 6.401199, "structural_low": 3.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.11391, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.153846, "median_excess_return": -0.102674, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.088713, "worst_return": -0.24356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.219591, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.28945, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.032787, "worst_return": -0.397965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.284397, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.319907, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.152225, "worst_return": -0.477876, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.309631, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023892, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.17474, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.31516, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.212245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.408166, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.353846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.185012, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.408669, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.112554, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.28, "volume": 66377, "typical_volume": 287164.5, "trend": 20.256533, "fair_value": 38.719346, "relative_strength": -33.755621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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680021, "typical_volume": 2516614.95, "trend": 3.917527, "fair_value": 6.591712, "relative_strength": -12.176013, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.221373, "energy": 18.39662, "activity_lines": [ 3.822333, 3.906909, 3.998499, 3.967961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.62, "volume": 25223, "typical_volume": 2505211.45, "trend": 3.92086, "fair_value": 6.486199, "relative_strength": -18.814556, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.487979, "energy": 26.447118, "activity_lines": [ 3.745333, 3.844364, 3.958333, 3.948766 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.1, "volume": 40267, "typical_volume": 341236.1, "trend": 3.936727, "fair_value": 6.401199, "relative_strength": -12.476796, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.426791, "energy": 9.027617, "activity_lines": [ 3.849667, 3.877091, 3.962524, 3.960323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }