{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c51b6cd6-077f-424a-8c33-79c3c34f5cb5", "symbol": "SNP", "name": "S&P Syndicate Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.076, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.602, "architecture_energy": 45.573, "architecture_maturity": 73.568, "architecture_confidence": 93.692, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.95, "rotation_up": 14.9, "upward_expansion": 7.83, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 58.06, "downward_expansion": 81.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.85, 8.88, 8.902857, 8.926406 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.8, "trend_reference": 8.975877, "distance_from_trend": -0.019594, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.963174, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.197313, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.280703, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037753, "excess_performance": -0.230078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019594, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015592, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.197313, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014875, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172807, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003636, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037753, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.645345, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 202800, "relative_activity": 1.733481, "balance": 0.645345, "dry_up": 1.855928, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016171, "annualized_volatility": 0.054559, "from_high_reference": -0.094356, "from_low_reference": 0.140441 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.975877, "fair_value_reference": 10.963174, "structural_low": 8.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.000263, "positive_rate": 0.393939, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": -0.017756, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.094216, "worst_return": -0.131147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.023102, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.046101, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.075387, "worst_return": -0.19697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.048732, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.018164, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.240831, "worst_return": -0.2052, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022989, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-08-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032206, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.061798, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.226197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035088, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", 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8.93653, 8.975308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.9, "volume": 54600, "typical_volume": 134265.0, "trend": 9.037395, "fair_value": 11.096339, "relative_strength": -18.879728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.11235, "energy": 23.232721, "activity_lines": [ 8.92, 8.928182, 8.931723, 8.965507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.95, "volume": 268200, "typical_volume": 134405.0, "trend": 9.022947, "fair_value": 11.063343, "relative_strength": -18.750441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.879774, "energy": 18.334602, "activity_lines": [ 8.93, 8.93, 8.932165, 8.959869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.85, "volume": 246800, "typical_volume": 126465.0, "trend": 9.005167, "fair_value": 11.029174, "relative_strength": -19.331297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.621953, "energy": 25.535768, "activity_lines": [ 8.903333, 8.914545, 8.923333, 8.948711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.85, "volume": 150700, "typical_volume": 117100.0, "trend": 8.990561, "fair_value": 10.996068, "relative_strength": -17.868025, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.307045, "energy": 32.810767, "activity_lines": [ 8.883333, 8.900909, 8.915, 8.9387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.8, "volume": 202800, "typical_volume": 116990.0, "trend": 8.975877, "fair_value": 10.963174, "relative_strength": -17.280703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.601882, "energy": 45.573403, "activity_lines": [ 8.85, 8.88, 8.902857, 8.926406 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }