{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c51c50a8-d002-43bf-a216-a28a34fbff90", "symbol": "002707", "name": "UTour Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.197, "architecture_energy": 58.205, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.534, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 29.3, "upward_expansion": 15.67, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 50.5, "downward_expansion": 80.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.982, 4.983636, 5.308714, 5.698925 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.1, "trend_reference": 6.296, "distance_from_trend": -0.189962, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.07891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.27955, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.721513, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.371921, "excess_performance": -0.379321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189962, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095316, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.27955, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142961, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.277215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036645, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.371921, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.343649, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70369662, "relative_activity": 1.057544, "balance": 0.343649, "dry_up": 1.394516, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068627, "annualized_volatility": 0.270095, "from_high_reference": -0.438944, "from_low_reference": 0.108696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.296, "fair_value_reference": 7.07891, "structural_low": 4.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.040422, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.030276, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.254072, "worst_return": -0.141243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.105323, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.101873, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.26873, "worst_return": -0.262595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015068, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.124062, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.567198, "worst_return": -0.157895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.863229, "energy": 91.061289, "activity_lines": [ 4.966, 5.214545, 5.666571, 6.09443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.81, "volume": 98298514, "typical_volume": 67538355.1, "trend": 6.516333, "fair_value": 7.129872, "relative_strength": -31.556173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.895642, "energy": 84.120464, "activity_lines": [ 4.879333, 5.099818, 5.546905, 5.979957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.68, "volume": 77509120, "typical_volume": 65633705.3, "trend": 6.434, "fair_value": 7.110833, "relative_strength": -32.795613, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.122178, "energy": 71.159927, "activity_lines": [ 4.794667, 4.988364, 5.42819, 5.861484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.18, "volume": 124990624, "typical_volume": 67516731.65, "trend": 6.365667, "fair_value": 7.095449, "relative_strength": -23.614633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.689874, "energy": 64.674077, "activity_lines": [ 4.913333, 4.988909, 5.368048, 5.780581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.1, "volume": 70369662, "typical_volume": 66540649.1, "trend": 6.296, "fair_value": 7.07891, "relative_strength": -27.721513, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.197429, "energy": 58.205106, "activity_lines": [ 4.982, 4.983636, 5.308714, 5.698925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }