{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5202f65-d645-445f-88ad-fc40b6cab834", "symbol": "GWRS", "name": "Global Water Resources Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 64.87, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.371, "architecture_energy": 8.189, "architecture_maturity": 19.321, "architecture_confidence": 62.913, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.26, "rotation_up": 29.52, "upward_expansion": 29.36, "deceleration": 48.76, "rotation_down": 22.82, "downward_expansion": 44.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.322998, 7.234414, 7.20076, 7.337305 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.6, "trend_reference": 7.628247, "distance_from_trend": -0.003703, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.118671, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.248913, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.547782, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.124622, "excess_performance": -0.312075, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003703, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054763, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.248913, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081079, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205478, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147927, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124622, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.440652, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 304061, "relative_activity": 0.642615, "balance": 1.440652, "dry_up": 0.87216, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064244, "annualized_volatility": 0.32147, "from_high_reference": -0.300452, "from_low_reference": 0.169025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.628247, "fair_value_reference": 10.118671, "structural_low": 6.501145, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.009895, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007247, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.152993, "worst_return": -0.192708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.089392, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.078832, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.113438, "worst_return": -0.226147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.056083, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.120306, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.076948, "worst_return": -0.346756, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.084783, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06791, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017964, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037229, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.143974, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", 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"activity_lines": [ 7.174507, 7.151496, 7.173458, 7.374869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.16, "volume": 355980, "typical_volume": 506787.8, "trend": 7.652702, "fair_value": 10.139363, "relative_strength": -22.027246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.541508, "energy": 18.548879, "activity_lines": [ 7.17295, 7.152653, 7.165926, 7.340706 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.6, "volume": 304061, "typical_volume": 473161.9, "trend": 7.628247, "fair_value": 10.118671, "relative_strength": -20.547782, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.370944, "energy": 8.189452, "activity_lines": [ 7.322998, 7.234414, 7.20076, 7.337305 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }