{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c52369f0-e74a-4230-b694-3433fa007fcd", "symbol": "002413", "name": "Beijing LeiKe Defense Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.932, "architecture_energy": 75.492, "architecture_maturity": 29.939, "architecture_confidence": 89.271, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.06, "rotation_up": 14.87, "upward_expansion": 16.88, "deceleration": 41.63, "rotation_down": 72.33, "downward_expansion": 92.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.340667, 8.806727, 9.975286, 10.923548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.17, "trend_reference": 12.214333, "distance_from_trend": -0.249243, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.428718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.426412, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.871624, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.312078, "excess_performance": -0.319478, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.249243, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037046, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.426412, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.875255, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088716, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.425138, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.312078, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.375345, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 428176667, "relative_activity": 1.17443, "balance": 0.375345, "dry_up": 0.865507, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129939, "annualized_volatility": 0.597561, "from_high_reference": -0.548053, "from_low_reference": 0.784047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.214333, "fair_value_reference": 6.428718, "structural_low": 6.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.057607, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.037644, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.233429, "worst_return": -0.247967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.102129, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.097541, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.492625, "worst_return": -0.086253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069077, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.054607, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.391061, "worst_return": -0.187826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 9.815333, 10.254545, 11.355952, 12.042237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.6, "volume": 351076488, "typical_volume": 461179425.2, "trend": 12.433, "fair_value": 6.37391, "relative_strength": -20.694934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.163659, "energy": 85.41565, "activity_lines": [ 9.038667, 9.659091, 10.913857, 11.727269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.6, "volume": 266817227, "typical_volume": 398003538.55, "trend": 12.377667, "fair_value": 6.389167, "relative_strength": -21.163079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.652026, "energy": 89.067028, "activity_lines": [ 8.445333, 9.178182, 10.506381, 11.415462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.91, "volume": 216125068, "typical_volume": 369253521.1, "trend": 12.327, "fair_value": 6.404231, "relative_strength": -16.925106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.717414, "energy": 86.428464, "activity_lines": [ 8.130667, 8.845455, 10.166714, 11.127226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.17, "volume": 428176667, "typical_volume": 364582544.7, "trend": 12.214333, "fair_value": 6.428718, "relative_strength": -8.871624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.932219, "energy": 75.492219, "activity_lines": [ 8.340667, 8.806727, 9.975286, 10.923548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }