{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c523f034-c455-4809-b43d-b343cf0c2aaa", "symbol": "LT", "name": "Larsen & Toubro Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.771, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.898, "architecture_energy": 20.548, "architecture_maturity": 38.342, "architecture_confidence": 88.051, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.08, "rotation_up": 22.79, "upward_expansion": 42.49, "deceleration": 82.12, "rotation_down": 41.28, "downward_expansion": 34.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 3931.146663, 3969.996365, 3977.800562, 3946.475475 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4056.0, "trend_reference": 3923.993677, "distance_from_trend": 0.033641, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3543.812412, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.14453, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.112268, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006764, "excess_performance": 0.050473, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033641, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000141, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.14453, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010741, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051123, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027243, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006764, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.904392, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7931214, "relative_activity": 0.791229, "balance": 0.904392, "dry_up": 0.947938, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037953, "annualized_volatility": 0.321846, "from_high_reference": -0.077564, "from_low_reference": 0.245587 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3923.993677, "fair_value_reference": 3543.812412, "structural_low": 3256.294766, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.04823, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.03764, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.170095, "worst_return": -0.215906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055294, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.040615, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.134189, "worst_return": -0.03205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.061903, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.07219, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.181602, "worst_return": -0.193357, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021409, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067995, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072473, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170095, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076783, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3785.600098, "volume": 7274697, "typical_volume": 11717719.9, "trend": 3927.810099, "fair_value": 3525.42197, "relative_strength": 1.861116, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.607816, "energy": 26.162062, "activity_lines": [ 3886.200049, 3971.289111, 3958.491349, 3937.093499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3938.899902, "volume": 10167083, "typical_volume": 10992097.45, "trend": 3921.669165, "fair_value": 3534.278065, "relative_strength": 3.093333, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.435779, "energy": 24.602373, "activity_lines": [ 3879.906673, 3960.109091, 3963.839201, 3937.80897 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4056.0, "volume": 7931214, "typical_volume": 10023914.6, "trend": 3923.993677, "fair_value": 3543.812412, "relative_strength": 5.112268, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.897661, "energy": 20.54784, "activity_lines": [ 3931.146663, 3969.996365, 3977.800562, 3946.475475 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }