{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c526c607-1f82-43ce-b26e-2f8010f9e34d", "symbol": "ACGL", "name": "Arch Capital Group Ltd.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.753, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.751, "architecture_energy": 39.3, "architecture_maturity": 8.453, "architecture_confidence": 68.394, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.17, "rotation_up": 60.05, "upward_expansion": 77.47, "deceleration": 57.22, "rotation_down": 14.28, "downward_expansion": 4.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 100.557333, 99.663091, 97.355, 96.765247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 98.48, "trend_reference": 96.21, "distance_from_trend": 0.023594, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 90.920899, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.083139, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.786168, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.024468, "excess_performance": -0.211921, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023594, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015241, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.083139, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026637, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087862, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073537, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024468, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.652983, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7591322, "relative_activity": 0.73046, "balance": 1.652983, "dry_up": 0.878653, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050812, "annualized_volatility": 0.205852, "from_high_reference": -0.080357, "from_low_reference": 0.194493 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.21, "fair_value_reference": 90.920899, "structural_low": 87.05, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.00935, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.002536, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.112431, "worst_return": -0.12177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.044102, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.071591, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.184099, "worst_return": -0.063464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.100523, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.007976, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.324453, "worst_return": -0.094443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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101.35, "volume": 8044139, "typical_volume": 10286540.8, "trend": 95.628, "fair_value": 90.388177, "relative_strength": -2.873423, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.111283, "energy": 60.162641, "activity_lines": [ 100.256667, 97.239273, 95.883048, 95.81271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 103.36, "volume": 10173669, "typical_volume": 10447804.7, "trend": 95.877667, "fair_value": 90.579828, "relative_strength": 0.743174, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.154883, "energy": 74.904032, "activity_lines": [ 101.821333, 98.653818, 96.64919, 96.311548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 100.53, "volume": 10716551, "typical_volume": 10541644.15, "trend": 96.1, "fair_value": 90.756568, "relative_strength": -2.383632, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.744832, "energy": 65.967906, "activity_lines": [ 101.630667, 99.383273, 97.116524, 96.611699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 98.48, "volume": 7591322, "typical_volume": 10392526.3, "trend": 96.21, "fair_value": 90.920899, "relative_strength": -8.786168, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.751333, "energy": 39.299801, "activity_lines": [ 100.557333, 99.663091, 97.355, 96.765247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }