{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c53141c3-2160-4c73-aeff-abaea230463a", "symbol": "CME", "name": "CME Group Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.389, "architecture_energy": 43.506, "architecture_maturity": 80.224, "architecture_confidence": 91.585, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.06, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 31.69, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 4362.92793, 4287.19574, 4470.786263, 4675.245799 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4440.5, "trend_reference": 4881.307083, "distance_from_trend": -0.090305, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4449.848355, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.002101, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.77272, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.142564, "excess_performance": -0.087897, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090305, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047499, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.002101, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114533, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117727, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029944, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142564, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.160402, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.160402, "dry_up": 0.013972, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039001, "annualized_volatility": 0.336548, "from_high_reference": -0.215459, "from_low_reference": 0.150389 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4881.307083, "fair_value_reference": 4449.848355, 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"direction": -68.400337, "energy": 84.835283, "activity_lines": [ 4142.189941, 4342.336495, 4660.179163, 4825.912498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4246.569824, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1545.3, "trend": 4938.317809, "fair_value": 4428.573412, "relative_strength": -16.850625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.019025, "energy": 79.018388, "activity_lines": [ 4149.675228, 4293.890631, 4595.182358, 4780.014092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4246.569824, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1350.55, "trend": 4915.004674, "fair_value": 4434.836298, "relative_strength": -16.004544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.224522, "energy": 74.295389, "activity_lines": [ 4173.855859, 4256.321666, 4535.049742, 4735.38519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4440.5, "volume": 70, "typical_volume": 1252.5, "trend": 4898.155878, "fair_value": 4442.342326, "relative_strength": -12.314116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.449155, "energy": 52.327405, "activity_lines": [ 4285.441894, 4266.558242, 4500.111098, 4704.771985 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4440.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1252.5, "trend": 4881.307083, "fair_value": 4449.848355, "relative_strength": -11.77272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.389052, "energy": 43.506353, "activity_lines": [ 4362.92793, 4287.19574, 4470.786263, 4675.245799 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }