{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c53277d5-2134-440e-85bc-8a69ec9a9425", "symbol": "CYP", "name": "Cynata Therapeutics Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.837, "architecture_energy": 87.572, "architecture_maturity": 51.661, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 28.5, "upward_expansion": 21.28, "deceleration": 37.34, "rotation_down": 63.91, "downward_expansion": 99.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.012067, 0.026509, 0.119395, 0.174587 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.012, "trend_reference": 0.236717, "distance_from_trend": -0.949306, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.210987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.943125, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -95.3107, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.965217, "excess_performance": -1.028923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.949306, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238649, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.943125, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.517458, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.953107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.259066, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.965217, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.013446, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1743493, "relative_activity": 0.245256, "balance": 0.013446, "dry_up": 0.596471, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 2.807692, "annualized_volatility": 3.735358, "from_high_reference": -0.972414, "from_low_reference": 0.090909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.236717, "fair_value_reference": 0.210987, "structural_low": 0.011, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.457143, "median_excess_return": -0.004607, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.407407, "worst_return": -0.304348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.007812, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018877, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.583333, "worst_return": -0.559322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.054348, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.028743, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.559322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.053837, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.059037, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.076923, "worst_return": -0.648649, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.217391, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.162791, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040816, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", 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"close": 0.012, "volume": 2206741, "typical_volume": 6908740.4, "trend": 0.26075, "fair_value": 0.212692, "relative_strength": -95.175691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.129138, "energy": 89.389689, "activity_lines": [ 0.012333, 0.060364, 0.157238, 0.205946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.012, "volume": 4328612, "typical_volume": 7084591.0, "trend": 0.249317, "fair_value": 0.211808, "relative_strength": -95.226382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.988398, "energy": 88.690767, "activity_lines": [ 0.0122, 0.041, 0.137607, 0.189898 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.012, "volume": 1743493, "typical_volume": 7108863.4, "trend": 0.236717, "fair_value": 0.210987, "relative_strength": -95.3107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.837295, "energy": 87.572307, "activity_lines": [ 0.012067, 0.026509, 0.119395, 0.174587 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }