{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c54094d4-6e59-45c9-822e-af4f5631ef02", "symbol": "DXN", "name": "DXN Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.301, "architecture_energy": 30.601, "architecture_maturity": 72.943, "architecture_confidence": 95.904, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.35, "rotation_up": 32.11, "upward_expansion": 64.86, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.05, "downward_expansion": 17.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1675, 0.177455, 0.137433, 0.108239 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.1775, "trend_reference": 0.076583, "distance_from_trend": 1.317737, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.052224, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.398807, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 158.2559, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 4.546875, "excess_performance": 4.483169, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 1.317737, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.454594, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.398807, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 2.925862, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 1.582559, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 2.11653, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 4.546875, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.727536, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16625445, "relative_activity": 1.616804, "balance": 2.727536, "dry_up": 1.878651, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.317876, "annualized_volatility": 3.297206, "from_high_reference": -0.303922, "from_low_reference": 10.09375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.076583, "fair_value_reference": 0.052224, "structural_low": 0.016, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.08728, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.06067, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.194805, "worst_return": -0.529416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.322767, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.371457, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.229508, "worst_return": -0.446809, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.441558, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.479225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.411768, "worst_return": -0.57377, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.486252, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.559196, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.207792, "worst_return": -0.764712, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.944444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.194805, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184783, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.169014, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067797, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.122807, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.205479, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.229508, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.257143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.219512, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.014999, "volume": 143266, "typical_volume": 455138.95, "trend": 0.042249, "fair_value": 0.147211, "relative_strength": -77.792288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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"trend": 0.064167, "fair_value": 0.049548, "relative_strength": 160.263803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.379687, "energy": 63.151937, "activity_lines": [ 0.191333, 0.169836, 0.114957, 0.089637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.155, "volume": 9874582, "typical_volume": 8405484.45, "trend": 0.068, "fair_value": 0.050349, "relative_strength": 153.256985, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.227131, "energy": 50.256537, "activity_lines": [ 0.176333, 0.1732, 0.122205, 0.095497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.16, "volume": 21407356, "typical_volume": 9464290.05, "trend": 0.072, "fair_value": 0.051183, "relative_strength": 148.174766, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.144554, "energy": 37.260482, "activity_lines": [ 0.166333, 0.175, 0.12931, 0.101432 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1775, "volume": 16625445, "typical_volume": 10282905.4, "trend": 0.076583, "fair_value": 0.052224, "relative_strength": 158.2559, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.301171, "energy": 30.60083, "activity_lines": [ 0.1675, 0.177455, 0.137433, 0.108239 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }