{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c54d7c9b-29e6-4f69-80f6-14054a23e3ee", "symbol": "ASND", "name": "Ascendis Pharma AS", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.997, "architecture_energy": 25.506, "architecture_maturity": 42.474, "architecture_confidence": 52.626, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.15, "rotation_up": 38.67, "upward_expansion": 64.02, "deceleration": 64.06, "rotation_down": 23.32, "downward_expansion": 14.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 253.781333, 254.262364, 246.09019, 241.426602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 255.41, "trend_reference": 235.416667, "distance_from_trend": 0.084927, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 164.432404, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.553283, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.863922, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.149719, "excess_performance": -0.037735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084927, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060539, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.553283, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021627, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008639, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03037, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149719, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.844532, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2973243, "relative_activity": 0.923401, "balance": 1.844532, "dry_up": 0.799526, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077906, "annualized_volatility": 0.367664, "from_high_reference": -0.094772, "from_low_reference": 0.372773 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 235.416667, "fair_value_reference": 164.432404, "structural_low": 203.8, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.032729, "positive_rate": 0.62963, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": 0.013126, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.167275, "worst_return": -0.118232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.066471, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.011516, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.22923, "worst_return": -0.428898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055138, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.131577, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.240708, "worst_return": -0.364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 270.45, "volume": 2956924, "typical_volume": 3383435.4, "trend": 229.119, "fair_value": 160.312276, "relative_strength": 7.637222, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.067726, "energy": 73.299617, "activity_lines": [ 260.814667, 247.175818, 239.963381, 235.775613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 261.0, "volume": 2713660, "typical_volume": 3331948.3, "trend": 231.152667, "fair_value": 161.413237, "relative_strength": 7.955995, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.089953, "energy": 72.7637, "activity_lines": [ 264.175333, 250.714727, 242.356095, 237.832452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 253.86, "volume": 2175450, "typical_volume": 3223351.4, "trend": 232.648667, "fair_value": 162.44375, "relative_strength": 6.269803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.211764, "energy": 69.724391, "activity_lines": [ 262.293333, 252.549273, 243.937857, 239.297441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 243.91, "volume": 2435160, "typical_volume": 3171300.05, "trend": 233.669333, "fair_value": 163.386827, "relative_strength": 1.332495, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.207855, "energy": 37.043454, "activity_lines": [ 255.559333, 252.331818, 244.509095, 240.023978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 255.41, "volume": 2973243, "typical_volume": 3219881.95, "trend": 235.416667, "fair_value": 164.432404, "relative_strength": 0.863922, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.996505, "energy": 25.505536, "activity_lines": [ 253.781333, 254.262364, 246.09019, 241.426602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }