{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c552373c-cf8a-43b8-bf70-377d4c8b1345", "symbol": "OSWALSEEDS", "name": "ShreeOswal Seeds and Chemicals Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.72, "architecture_energy": 46.443, "architecture_maturity": 58.876, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.6, "rotation_up": 20.55, "upward_expansion": 6.8, "deceleration": 47.19, "rotation_down": 52.91, "downward_expansion": 77.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.542667, 10.671273, 11.079524, 11.397806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.63, "trend_reference": 11.97, "distance_from_trend": -0.111947, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.462724, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.565461, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.74474, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.22971, "excess_performance": -0.186001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111947, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111095, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.565461, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014502, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197447, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138609, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22971, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.117578, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 145111, "relative_activity": 0.567257, "balance": 0.117578, "dry_up": 0.909264, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078009, "annualized_volatility": 0.372991, "from_high_reference": -0.475838, "from_low_reference": 0.099276 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.97, "fair_value_reference": 24.462724, "structural_low": 9.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.048052, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.044741, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.3802, "worst_return": -0.189675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.158378, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.130253, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.272285, "worst_return": -0.290343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.140073, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.279614, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.082012, "worst_return": -0.342844, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -22.024988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.780812, "energy": 67.968979, "activity_lines": [ 10.530667, 10.733273, 11.22381, 11.596473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.76, "volume": 241336, "typical_volume": 255837.15, "trend": 12.118667, "fair_value": 24.747521, "relative_strength": -18.324214, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.389287, "energy": 57.743481, "activity_lines": [ 10.553333, 10.703091, 11.155476, 11.493849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.63, "volume": 145111, "typical_volume": 255811.9, "trend": 11.97, "fair_value": 24.462724, "relative_strength": -19.74474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.720299, "energy": 46.442886, "activity_lines": [ 10.542667, 10.671273, 11.079524, 11.397806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }