{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c55461a9-ff16-4595-95a0-ce878da10e43", "symbol": "AUTO", "name": "Autotrader Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.43, "architecture_energy": 41.77, "architecture_maturity": 16.309, "architecture_confidence": 41.326, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.21, "rotation_up": 61.8, "upward_expansion": 57.28, "deceleration": 24.12, "rotation_down": 19.04, "downward_expansion": 15.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 510.873333, 502.330909, 492.626191, 490.550323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 521.0, "trend_reference": 494.373334, "distance_from_trend": 0.053859, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 706.004408, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.262044, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.314287, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.072458, "excess_performance": 0.021223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053859, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084639, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.262044, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014613, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193143, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092567, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072458, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.218778, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21083435, "relative_activity": 0.907723, "balance": 0.218778, "dry_up": 0.764426, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061396, "annualized_volatility": 0.314361, "from_high_reference": -0.3731, "from_low_reference": 0.244625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 494.373334, "fair_value_reference": 706.004408, "structural_low": 418.600006, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.013644, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004939, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.183523, "worst_return": -0.04448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.131233, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.144166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193526, "worst_return": 0.023889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.098956, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.131485, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.251505, "worst_return": 0.089124, "sufficient": false 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"activity_lines": [ 504.78, 495.894545, 489.256667, 488.988602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 521.0, "volume": 21083435, "typical_volume": 23226731.95, "trend": 494.373334, "fair_value": 706.004408, "relative_strength": -19.314287, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.430275, "energy": 41.770113, "activity_lines": [ 510.873333, 502.330909, 492.626191, 490.550323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }