{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c555f45c-7121-4017-bbd3-b29ad8a2352e", "symbol": "EMOVJ", "name": "Fineco AM MarketVector Global Clean Energy Transition Sustainable UCITS ETF J Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.522, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.101, "architecture_energy": 65.337, "architecture_maturity": 5.43, "architecture_confidence": 78.101, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.37, "rotation_up": 14.09, "upward_expansion": 29.7, "deceleration": 49.29, "rotation_down": 74.21, "downward_expansion": 59.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 13200.062239, 13632.843608, 14164.569847, 14133.478175 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13596.950195, "trend_reference": 13844.377572, "distance_from_trend": -0.017872, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10601.666707, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282529, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.801366, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.153819, "excess_performance": -0.017073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017872, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062228, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282529, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199542, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267341, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.153819, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.682927, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21, "relative_activity": 6.0, "balance": 0.682927, "dry_up": 4.071429, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046419, "annualized_volatility": 0.34377, "from_high_reference": -0.146624, "from_low_reference": 0.613012 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13844.377572, "fair_value_reference": 10601.666707, "structural_low": 11784.299805, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"2026-07-31", "close": 12650.610352, "volume": 12, "typical_volume": 2.45, "trend": 13783.955892, "fair_value": 10574.923104, "relative_strength": -9.435864, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.642125, "energy": 78.044302, "activity_lines": [ 13100.135547, 13755.063406, 14235.013007, 14145.543059 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13596.950195, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": 3.5, "trend": 13844.377572, "fair_value": 10601.666707, "relative_strength": -5.801366, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.101074, "energy": 65.336907, "activity_lines": [ 13200.062239, 13632.843608, 14164.569847, 14133.478175 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }