{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c5590a1e-cc14-4604-875b-2087494ea484",
    "symbol": "ALNOV",
    "name": "Novacyt S.A.",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 57.197,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 26.014,
    "architecture_energy": 12.923,
    "architecture_maturity": 22.884,
    "architecture_confidence": 50.544,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 49.35,
        "rotation_up": 37.82,
        "upward_expansion": 58.92,
        "deceleration": 61.36,
        "rotation_down": 23.8,
        "downward_expansion": 18.26
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.437633,
        0.428591,
        0.442214,
        0.433262
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 0.44,
    "trend_reference": 0.421983,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.042695,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.569768,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.227756,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.320239,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.112516,
    "excess_performance": 0.059204,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042695,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002953,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.227756,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.160036,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.053202,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.248358,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.112516,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 7.775263,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 485963,
      "relative_activity": 0.129384,
      "balance": 7.775263,
      "dry_up": 0.212077,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.22299,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.883248,
      "from_high_reference": -0.576923,
      "from_low_reference": 0.517241
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.421983,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.569768,
      "structural_low": 0.29,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": -0.086988,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": -0.081564,
        "regime_survival": 0.3,
        "best_return": 0.123426,
        "worst_return": -0.404424,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.091884,
        "positive_rate": 0.285714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.285714,
        "median_excess_return": -0.129791,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.45189,
        "worst_return": -0.328208,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.141,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": -0.215011,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.260946,
        "worst_return": -0.605786,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.254265,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.340482,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.102603,
        "worst_return": -0.732558,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.0189,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 1.203008,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.001736,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.170579,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.056,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": true
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    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 3799576.3,
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        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 13.350611,
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          0.4218,
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          0.429925
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.446,
        "volume": 1084431,
        "typical_volume": 3803446.25,
        "trend": 0.4205,
        "fair_value": 0.574553,
        "relative_strength": -0.708936,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 15.260243,
        "energy": 6.900648,
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          0.432633,
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          0.441826,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.4265,
        "volume": 376426,
        "typical_volume": 3765194.7,
        "trend": 0.420717,
        "fair_value": 0.57264,
        "relative_strength": -6.238565,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 23.340298,
        "energy": 9.595332,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.433867,
          0.428809,
          0.441479,
          0.432018
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.44,
        "volume": 485963,
        "typical_volume": 3755963.85,
        "trend": 0.421983,
        "fair_value": 0.569768,
        "relative_strength": -5.320239,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.014449,
        "energy": 12.923107,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.437633,
          0.428591,
          0.442214,
          0.433262
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}