{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5623552-0663-4edf-a6a5-95e26b41b745", "symbol": "OMG", "name": "Oxford Metrics plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.109, "architecture_energy": 56.498, "architecture_maturity": 33.093, "architecture_confidence": 94.603, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.9, "rotation_up": 20.62, "upward_expansion": 9.46, "deceleration": 52.05, "rotation_down": 60.03, "downward_expansion": 82.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.385333, 0.392182, 0.420229, 0.437435 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.383, "trend_reference": 0.463614, "distance_from_trend": -0.173882, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.6212, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.383451, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.911744, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.31314, "excess_performance": -0.364375, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173882, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016276, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.383451, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109076, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199117, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180038, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.31314, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.409405, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1131800, "relative_activity": 1.028774, "balance": 0.409405, "dry_up": 1.472652, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078429, "annualized_volatility": 0.320505, "from_high_reference": -0.33737, "from_low_reference": 0.052591 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.463614, "fair_value_reference": 0.6212, "structural_low": 0.375, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.014922, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.014214, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.385622, "worst_return": -0.255427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.014707, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.049104, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.333273, "worst_return": -0.364583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.018697, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.195652, "worst_return": -0.396185, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 1147241.8, "trend": 0.47009, "fair_value": 0.627467, "relative_strength": -18.308135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.08084, "energy": 80.686987, "activity_lines": [ 0.388267, 0.405782, 0.431629, 0.448532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.382, "volume": 676118, "typical_volume": 1106914.4, "trend": 0.466914, "fair_value": 0.624233, "relative_strength": -20.298942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.630927, "energy": 69.653333, "activity_lines": [ 0.386467, 0.398182, 0.425679, 0.442849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.383, "volume": 1131800, "typical_volume": 1100144.0, "trend": 0.463614, "fair_value": 0.6212, "relative_strength": -19.911744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.108697, "energy": 56.498318, "activity_lines": [ 0.385333, 0.392182, 0.420229, 0.437435 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }