{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c56439ff-3243-4f81-820b-d32d22bbaa88", "symbol": "BJZ", "name": "Koda Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 68.848, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -43.044, "architecture_energy": 77.177, "architecture_maturity": 12.418, "architecture_confidence": 71.361, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.84, "rotation_up": 16.06, "upward_expansion": 27.11, "deceleration": 43.0, "rotation_down": 76.48, "downward_expansion": 68.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.301333, 0.312364, 0.325167, 0.328011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.3, "trend_reference": 0.326167, "distance_from_trend": -0.080225, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.236962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.266028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.601857, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.176471, "excess_performance": 0.021635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080225, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068815, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.266028, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164933, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116019, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.333849, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.176471, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.545455, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.545455, "dry_up": 1.505355, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04359, "annualized_volatility": 0.467944, "from_high_reference": -0.189189, "from_low_reference": 0.538462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.326167, "fair_value_reference": 0.236962, "structural_low": 0.255, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014706, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016209, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.062176, "worst_return": -0.316667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030883, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.018336, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.165803, "worst_return": -0.266667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.091912, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088034, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.295337, "worst_return": -0.366667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.266667, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.328772, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05, "worst_return": -0.551346, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020513, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.185185, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.37, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9115.0, "trend": 0.327667, "fair_value": 0.545119, "relative_strength": 2.327062, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.018519, "energy": 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56.691315, "energy": 42.881578, "activity_lines": [ 0.346667, 0.346455, 0.340762, 0.328151 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 0.32, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 55180.0, "trend": 0.3105, "fair_value": 0.238372, "relative_strength": 8.799824, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.53863, "energy": 15.94709, "activity_lines": [ 0.337667, 0.341909, 0.339595, 0.328914 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 0.34, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 55180.0, "trend": 0.3135, "fair_value": 0.238372, "relative_strength": 11.419721, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.49967, "energy": 18.190759, "activity_lines": [ 0.336667, 0.341364, 0.340262, 0.330817 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.34, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 47890.0, "trend": 0.3165, "fair_value": 0.238372, "relative_strength": 10.939469, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.787507, "energy": 20.636743, "activity_lines": [ 0.337, 0.340818, 0.340762, 0.332527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.34, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 35015.0, "trend": 0.3195, "fair_value": 0.238372, "relative_strength": 9.337605, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.32454, "energy": 15.091419, "activity_lines": [ 0.337333, 0.340273, 0.340857, 0.334043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.32, "volume": 46100, "typical_volume": 30460.0, "trend": 0.3215, "fair_value": 0.238179, "relative_strength": -1.594237, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.267076, "energy": 8.979225, "activity_lines": [ 0.332, 0.336, 0.338952, 0.334075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.3, "volume": 101600, "typical_volume": 30695.0, "trend": 0.322833, "fair_value": 0.237859, "relative_strength": -8.615186, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.571036, "energy": 39.075911, "activity_lines": [ 0.321333, 0.328818, 0.335214, 0.332688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.3, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 24955.0, "trend": 0.324167, "fair_value": 0.237635, "relative_strength": -9.862889, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.314106, "energy": 59.270513, "activity_lines": [ 0.312, 0.322364, 0.331643, 0.331215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.3, "volume": 53000, "typical_volume": 25675.0, "trend": 0.3255, "fair_value": 0.23741, "relative_strength": -10.515768, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.335849, "energy": 72.793333, "activity_lines": [ 0.305333, 0.317, 0.328357, 0.329656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.3, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 25675.0, "trend": 0.326167, "fair_value": 0.236962, "relative_strength": -11.601857, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.04439, "energy": 77.177278, "activity_lines": [ 0.301333, 0.312364, 0.325167, 0.328011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }