{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c56e93ac-b149-46eb-9210-20eb99278482", "symbol": "601086", "name": "Gansu Guofang Industry & Trade (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.349, "architecture_energy": 20.578, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.306, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.14, "rotation_up": 30.99, "upward_expansion": 22.04, "deceleration": 44.12, "rotation_down": 23.19, "downward_expansion": 56.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.485333, 7.232887, 7.512682, 7.880254 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.9, "trend_reference": 8.476616, "distance_from_trend": -0.068024, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.091205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.114056, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.920544, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.217822, "excess_performance": -0.174618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068024, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11986, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.114056, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169205, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073592, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217822, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.686501, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88003497, "relative_activity": 1.806404, "balance": 0.686501, "dry_up": 1.560998, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094943, "annualized_volatility": 0.428929, "from_high_reference": -0.425036, "from_low_reference": 0.204268 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.476616, "fair_value_reference": 7.091205, "structural_low": 6.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.027149, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.010156, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.361879, "worst_return": -0.188326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.055971, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.0053, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.504202, "worst_return": -0.196033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077828, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.075934, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.336111, "worst_return": -0.327805, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-24.574064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.686523, "energy": 54.662969, "activity_lines": [ 6.91, 7.088035, 7.640232, 8.10175 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.72, "volume": 39036344, "typical_volume": 40804637.65, "trend": 8.637616, "fair_value": 7.050355, "relative_strength": -28.085107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.763448, "energy": 53.96871, "activity_lines": [ 6.86, 6.971268, 7.513001, 7.96928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.91, "volume": 119908615, "typical_volume": 45557373.4, "trend": 8.552283, "fair_value": 7.072975, "relative_strength": -15.097788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.589397, "energy": 32.142536, "activity_lines": [ 7.218, 7.102181, 7.510865, 7.922337 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.9, "volume": 88003497, "typical_volume": 48717498.6, "trend": 8.476616, "fair_value": 7.091205, "relative_strength": -16.920544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.349436, "energy": 20.57757, "activity_lines": [ 7.485333, 7.232887, 7.512682, 7.880254 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }