{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5961921-2fed-4a0f-bf93-c820d65323dd", "symbol": "ZAG", "name": "Zuleika Gold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.784, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 11.332, "architecture_energy": 22.258, "architecture_maturity": 9.255, "architecture_confidence": 59.722, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.37, "rotation_up": 45.72, "upward_expansion": 36.18, "deceleration": 34.96, "rotation_down": 14.73, "downward_expansion": 42.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.036467, 0.035545, 0.034624, 0.035366 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.038, "trend_reference": 0.037667, "distance_from_trend": 0.00885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.022301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.703938, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.168748, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.136364, "excess_performance": -0.200069, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00885, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055973, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.703938, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057755, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011687, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09072, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.235959, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 317905, "relative_activity": 0.322526, "balance": 0.235959, "dry_up": 0.310113, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071862, "annualized_volatility": 0.411464, "from_high_reference": -0.321429, "from_low_reference": 1.235294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.037667, "fair_value_reference": 0.022301, "structural_low": 0.029, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.05124, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.241379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.252841, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.260387, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.923077, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.138853, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.230769, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.036638, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.102151, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.615385, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.277778, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.16129, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.322581, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.238095, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121212, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.011, "volume": 1947160, "typical_volume": 938835.85, "trend": 0.01475, "fair_value": 0.028817, "relative_strength": -35.345069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.973905, "energy": 11.546949, "activity_lines": [ 0.035067, 0.034273, 0.034095, 0.03572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.036, "volume": 67086, "typical_volume": 1114611.7, "trend": 0.038167, "fair_value": 0.021994, "relative_strength": 2.769699, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.197276, "energy": 15.40809, "activity_lines": [ 0.0356, 0.034691, 0.03421, 0.035559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.035, "volume": 677667, "typical_volume": 1064309.05, "trend": 0.037833, "fair_value": 0.022128, "relative_strength": -3.156566, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.882869, "energy": 16.097228, "activity_lines": [ 0.0356, 0.034873, 0.034257, 0.035355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.038, "volume": 317905, "typical_volume": 985672.7, "trend": 0.037667, "fair_value": 0.022301, "relative_strength": 1.168748, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.332017, "energy": 22.257961, "activity_lines": [ 0.036467, 0.035545, 0.034624, 0.035366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }