{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c596fea7-1857-4a04-b157-52a83d1e96d0", "symbol": "TCH-F83", "name": "Tachlit Index Sal Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (40) TA REAL-ESTATE", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.183, "architecture_energy": 67.683, "architecture_maturity": 97.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.96, "rotation_down": 58.76, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.930667, 13.170545, 324.258476, 601.374581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.51, "trend_reference": 925.376333, "distance_from_trend": -0.986481, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 987.817884, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987336, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.973651, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.99127, "excess_performance": -1.02017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.986481, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325487, "read": "Falling" 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12.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.012759, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.006514, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.148386, "worst_return": -0.106931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.06393, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.00275, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.118023, "worst_return": -0.140778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.005777, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011463, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.415713, "worst_return": -0.200975, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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796.334667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.2, "volume": 1343718, "typical_volume": 491857.15, "trend": 1020.761, "fair_value": 998.065576, "relative_strength": -98.991974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.4686, "energy": 68.502096, "activity_lines": [ 13.332667, 39.116182, 467.336619, 728.496753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.95, "volume": 1152668, "typical_volume": 490793.85, "trend": 975.092667, "fair_value": 993.03064, "relative_strength": -98.959794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.335758, "energy": 68.131569, "activity_lines": [ 13.202667, 13.364727, 392.461238, 663.476688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.51, "volume": 577849, "typical_volume": 475398.95, "trend": 925.376333, "fair_value": 987.817884, "relative_strength": -98.973651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.182881, "energy": 67.683016, "activity_lines": [ 12.930667, 13.170545, 324.258476, 601.374581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }