{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c59c93fd-a6f8-40d6-8ea9-fcdc98007fae", "symbol": "300226", "name": "Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.083, "architecture_energy": 47.299, "architecture_maturity": 79.938, "architecture_confidence": 71.583, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.2, "rotation_up": 25.72, "upward_expansion": 14.53, "deceleration": 66.78, "rotation_down": 46.71, "downward_expansion": 73.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.99, 15.962438, 17.120718, 18.303224 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.76, "trend_reference": 19.937715, "distance_from_trend": -0.159382, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.725273, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.150329, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.983349, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.311527, "excess_performance": -0.318927, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159382, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072427, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.150329, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175451, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219833, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029851, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.311527, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.411303, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56497972, "relative_activity": 1.382233, "balance": 0.411303, "dry_up": 1.184673, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089345, "annualized_volatility": 0.385062, "from_high_reference": -0.397124, "from_low_reference": 0.157459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.937715, "fair_value_reference": 19.725273, "structural_low": 14.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.008521, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.006065, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.410706, "worst_return": -0.293884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.042923, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.001956, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.551512, "worst_return": -0.287226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062639, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.085214, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.537514, "worst_return": -0.306383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -67.297395, "energy": 84.177619, "activity_lines": [ 16.038, 16.879973, 18.360315, 19.482487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.22, "volume": 50694974, "typical_volume": 48118720.15, "trend": 20.401943, "fair_value": 19.885595, "relative_strength": -28.637951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.839807, "energy": 77.742669, "activity_lines": [ 15.708, 16.403005, 17.939246, 19.136766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.57, "volume": 40052997, "typical_volume": 45552550.55, "trend": 20.223211, "fair_value": 19.821834, "relative_strength": -31.046136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.618737, "energy": 72.344836, "activity_lines": [ 15.274667, 15.916034, 17.500946, 18.760511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.450001, "volume": 46445305, "typical_volume": 42684976.5, "trend": 20.074742, "fair_value": 19.766631, "relative_strength": -20.15444, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.899395, "energy": 59.324268, "activity_lines": [ 15.618, 15.878191, 17.280519, 18.517079 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.76, "volume": 56497972, "typical_volume": 40874405.2, "trend": 19.937715, "fair_value": 19.725273, "relative_strength": -21.983349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.082891, "energy": 47.298843, "activity_lines": [ 15.99, 15.962438, 17.120718, 18.303224 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }