{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c59f7c43-7e91-461f-b16c-cbf4ffa93400", "symbol": "603599", "name": "Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.925, "architecture_energy": 42.698, "architecture_maturity": 70.148, "architecture_confidence": 94.152, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.46, "rotation_up": 27.87, "upward_expansion": 21.21, "deceleration": 46.02, "rotation_down": 35.46, "downward_expansion": 68.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.357333, 10.182333, 10.918655, 11.764746 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.47, "trend_reference": 12.652464, "distance_from_trend": -0.172493, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.581532, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.167828, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.363337, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.345625, "excess_performance": -0.302421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172493, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036957, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.167828, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122919, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143633, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069368, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.345625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.45369, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53836130, "relative_activity": 0.844304, "balance": 0.45369, "dry_up": 1.059601, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07696, "annualized_volatility": 0.458804, "from_high_reference": -0.371171, "from_low_reference": 0.15196 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.652464, "fair_value_reference": 12.581532, "structural_low": 9.088854, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.014667, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.005882, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.254921, "worst_return": -0.149804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.029148, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045756, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.323699, "worst_return": -0.214342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.020343, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.07121, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.170615, "worst_return": -0.179251, "sufficient": true }, { 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82.411621, "activity_lines": [ 9.753366, 10.156183, 11.424568, 12.198448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.26, "volume": 85840516, "typical_volume": 68580104.9, "trend": 12.714131, "fair_value": 12.679359, "relative_strength": -13.965043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.732426, "energy": 63.439521, "activity_lines": [ 9.908425, 10.096839, 11.213025, 12.037666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.7, "volume": 75009800, "typical_volume": 65414234.5, "trend": 12.686131, "fair_value": 12.631183, "relative_strength": -10.40298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.314898, "energy": 49.588565, "activity_lines": [ 10.203743, 10.152404, 11.064721, 11.907722 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.47, "volume": 53836130, "typical_volume": 63763940.5, "trend": 12.652464, "fair_value": 12.581532, "relative_strength": -14.363337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.924996, "energy": 42.698162, "activity_lines": [ 10.357333, 10.182333, 10.918655, 11.764746 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }