{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5a0a6b0-706b-40eb-8eb3-9c97bf0ab1ab", "symbol": "600640", "name": "New Guomai Digital Culture Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.874, "architecture_energy": 34.358, "architecture_maturity": 86.155, "architecture_confidence": 62.565, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.77, "rotation_up": 25.16, "upward_expansion": 16.24, "deceleration": 66.67, "rotation_down": 40.84, "downward_expansion": 66.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.452626, 10.35466, 10.879524, 11.346976 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.71, "trend_reference": 12.068179, "distance_from_trend": -0.112542, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.953457, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104025, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.017864, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.268443, "excess_performance": -0.225239, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112542, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067926, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104025, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169375, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140179, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058651, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.268443, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.172782, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31476205, "relative_activity": 0.906109, "balance": 0.172782, "dry_up": 0.993675, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088108, "annualized_volatility": 0.324371, "from_high_reference": -0.350909, "from_low_reference": 0.104809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.068179, "fair_value_reference": 11.953457, "structural_low": 9.69398, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.011536, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.021337, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.347912, "worst_return": -0.155306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.136488, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.059426, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.482021, "worst_return": -0.122662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.192878, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.12488, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.436195, "worst_return": -0.105809, 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false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070979, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004847, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114841, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056662, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", 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"typical_volume": 34664788.15, "trend": 12.177446, "fair_value": 11.966192, "relative_strength": -19.883385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.531802, "energy": 58.916528, "activity_lines": [ 10.005876, 10.266637, 10.996518, 11.521511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.892, "volume": 33790287, "typical_volume": 34574766.65, "trend": 12.129846, "fair_value": 11.959223, "relative_strength": -10.570384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.123589, "energy": 44.020659, "activity_lines": [ 10.296318, 10.31403, 10.942502, 11.438579 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.71, "volume": 31476205, "typical_volume": 34737786.75, "trend": 12.068179, "fair_value": 11.953457, "relative_strength": -14.017864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.874049, "energy": 34.357766, "activity_lines": [ 10.452626, 10.35466, 10.879524, 11.346976 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }