{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5ae83f6-9498-46bb-af4b-0e48d399e63c", "symbol": "ROG", "name": "Red Sky Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.361, "architecture_energy": 31.475, "architecture_maturity": 95.677, "architecture_confidence": 88.058, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.46, "rotation_up": 21.08, "upward_expansion": 3.25, "deceleration": 53.72, "rotation_down": 48.34, "downward_expansion": 76.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001055, 0.001265, 0.001458 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.001, "trend_reference": 0.00176, "distance_from_trend": -0.431818, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.004669, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.785803, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -64.250859, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.6, "excess_performance": -0.663706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.431818, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279673, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.785803, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092768, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.642509, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084295, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.6, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.032402, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63805708, "relative_activity": 1.805874, "balance": 2.032402, "dry_up": 3.511044, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.769231, "annualized_volatility": 2.423454, "from_high_reference": -0.833333, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.00176, "fair_value_reference": 0.004669, "structural_low": 0.0008, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.242424, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032767, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.085352, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.100058, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.666667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 12781416.3, "trend": 0.00201, "fair_value": 0.004739, "relative_strength": -65.559729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.211638, "energy": 47.953631, "activity_lines": [ 0.0011, 0.001282, 0.00149, 0.001693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.001, "volume": 6643730, "typical_volume": 12952142.35, "trend": 0.001943, "fair_value": 0.004726, "relative_strength": -64.578629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.608203, "energy": 39.047313, "activity_lines": [ 0.001067, 0.001209, 0.001427, 0.001628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.001, "volume": 32770760, "typical_volume": 14463776.7, "trend": 0.001877, "fair_value": 0.004707, "relative_strength": -63.724687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.12412, "energy": 40.198372, "activity_lines": [ 0.001033, 0.001145, 0.001368, 0.001567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.001, "volume": 392993064, "typical_volume": 32912225.65, "trend": 0.00181, "fair_value": 0.004688, "relative_strength": -63.904609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.736449, "energy": 34.282235, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001091, 0.001314, 0.001511 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.001, "volume": 63805708, "typical_volume": 35332315.3, "trend": 0.00176, "fair_value": 0.004669, "relative_strength": -64.250859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.360738, "energy": 31.474983, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001055, 0.001265, 0.001458 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }