{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5b1ec75-5a05-4b24-9529-c6f85bc893dc", "symbol": "WAFDP", "name": "WaFd, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.405, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.236, "architecture_energy": 24.415, "architecture_maturity": 10.563, "architecture_confidence": 38.786, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.37, "rotation_up": 52.22, "upward_expansion": 49.13, "deceleration": 33.11, "rotation_down": 21.5, "downward_expansion": 9.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.403, 16.365464, 16.28833, 16.278074 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.4, "trend_reference": 16.285298, "distance_from_trend": 0.007043, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.811565, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.107243, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.596353, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.005402, "excess_performance": -0.182052, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007043, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00129, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.107243, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023293, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115964, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028082, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005402, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.812282, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51994, "relative_activity": 0.539454, "balance": 0.812282, "dry_up": 0.74613, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019555, "annualized_volatility": 0.098883, "from_high_reference": -0.02849, "from_low_reference": 0.075865 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.285298, "fair_value_reference": 14.811565, "structural_low": 15.70301, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.001796, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011822, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.126912, "worst_return": -0.082628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.01563, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.108173, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.217098, "worst_return": -0.157902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.068247, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.080659, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125586, "worst_return": -0.181118, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.056326, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.308077, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.498683, "worst_return": -0.231436, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038587, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000482, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043622, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051171, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005542, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038006, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012027, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015152, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000464, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024743, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.007369, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02581, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005826, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.048166, "volume": 112711, "typical_volume": 272332.9, "trend": 12.892115, "fair_value": 15.917019, "relative_strength": -24.688867, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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16.288353, "fair_value": 14.736726, "relative_strength": -7.793795, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.972254, "energy": 27.648022, "activity_lines": [ 16.415899, 16.270966, 16.248708, 16.258836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.44, "volume": 82885, "typical_volume": 99084.1, "trend": 16.282738, "fair_value": 14.763318, "relative_strength": -6.913041, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.565706, "energy": 35.475625, "activity_lines": [ 16.437038, 16.317677, 16.268761, 16.26862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.31, "volume": 72387, "typical_volume": 97785.55, "trend": 16.280719, "fair_value": 14.787465, "relative_strength": -7.892164, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.65298, "energy": 29.557982, "activity_lines": [ 16.403333, 16.335829, 16.27498, 16.270379 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.4, "volume": 51994, "typical_volume": 96382.7, "trend": 16.285298, "fair_value": 14.811565, "relative_strength": -11.596353, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.236264, "energy": 24.41525, "activity_lines": [ 16.403, 16.365464, 16.28833, 16.278074 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }