{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5b582e0-4557-4c61-95ed-93ee734c7d03", "symbol": "BRSL", "name": "Brightstar Lottery PLC", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.671, "architecture_energy": 47.909, "architecture_maturity": 60.783, "architecture_confidence": 90.824, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.39, "rotation_up": 18.19, "upward_expansion": 7.21, "deceleration": 46.26, "rotation_down": 60.99, "downward_expansion": 82.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.602667, 10.815455, 11.15875, 11.526091 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.05, "trend_reference": 12.073622, "distance_from_trend": -0.084782, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.205357, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.273282, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.718086, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.196036, "excess_performance": -0.321661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084782, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10209, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.273282, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066813, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.277181, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091281, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.196036, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.848921, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14318736, "relative_activity": 1.946365, "balance": 0.848921, "dry_up": 1.29373, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084074, "annualized_volatility": 0.373815, "from_high_reference": -0.372962, "from_low_reference": 0.116162 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.073622, "fair_value_reference": 15.205357, "structural_low": 9.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.033197, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.017251, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.282911, "worst_return": -0.144844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.069662, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.140676, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.423667, "worst_return": -0.261199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.107491, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.118796, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.598404, "worst_return": -0.278895, 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"direction": -63.869138, "energy": 42.089633, "activity_lines": [ 11.182, 11.243401, 11.622527, 12.007703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.74, "volume": 7073614, "typical_volume": 6814900.6, "trend": 12.504578, "fair_value": 15.456, "relative_strength": -28.623828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.158908, "energy": 47.3556, "activity_lines": [ 10.991333, 11.13604, 11.506722, 11.883652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.41, "volume": 7498969, "typical_volume": 6750144.3, "trend": 12.346911, "fair_value": 15.368213, "relative_strength": -29.906479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.422249, "energy": 59.306945, "activity_lines": [ 10.766, 11.005895, 11.370494, 11.748518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.04, "volume": 9178786, "typical_volume": 6909909.85, "trend": 12.190706, "fair_value": 15.282532, "relative_strength": -32.553905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.729608, "energy": 70.12487, "activity_lines": [ 10.477333, 10.810364, 11.210873, 11.599685 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.05, "volume": 14318736, "typical_volume": 7356654.65, "trend": 12.073622, "fair_value": 15.205357, "relative_strength": -27.718086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.670857, "energy": 47.90917, "activity_lines": [ 10.602667, 10.815455, 11.15875, 11.526091 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }