{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5bb7538-caa4-45c2-8e65-5cbfcdb53f25", "symbol": "ZPHR", "name": "Zephyr Energy plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.37, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 15.074, "architecture_energy": 13.652, "architecture_maturity": 8.458, "architecture_confidence": 56.006, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.58, "rotation_up": 41.1, "upward_expansion": 44.78, "deceleration": 41.49, "rotation_down": 30.18, "downward_expansion": 12.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.034293, 0.034012, 0.03296, 0.033079 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.0325, "trend_reference": 0.033055, "distance_from_trend": -0.01679, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.033664, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034589, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.844828, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.097222, "excess_performance": -0.148458, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01679, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091404, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034589, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054076, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018448, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044922, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.532881, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10102420, "relative_activity": 0.77441, "balance": 0.532881, "dry_up": 1.133026, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125917, "annualized_volatility": 0.575091, "from_high_reference": -0.250634, "from_low_reference": 0.477273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.033055, "fair_value_reference": 0.033664, "structural_low": 0.028, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.00368, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.242857, "worst_return": -0.230216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.075758, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.055115, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.160714, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.12619, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.227518, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.184211, "worst_return": -0.196429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.0336, 0.032596, 0.03232, 0.032565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0378, "volume": 19392549, "typical_volume": 13058541.2, "trend": 0.032438, "fair_value": 0.033729, "relative_strength": 15.739936, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.728558, "energy": 53.208649, "activity_lines": [ 0.035133, 0.033663, 0.032797, 0.032933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.035, "volume": 11567190, "typical_volume": 12999836.0, "trend": 0.032805, "fair_value": 0.033706, "relative_strength": 5.887781, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.388805, "energy": 39.742018, "activity_lines": [ 0.035213, 0.034105, 0.032997, 0.033098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0325, "volume": 10102420, "typical_volume": 13045311.1, "trend": 0.033055, "fair_value": 0.033664, "relative_strength": -1.844828, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.07443, "energy": 13.651765, "activity_lines": [ 0.034293, 0.034012, 0.03296, 0.033079 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }