{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5ca9f93-227b-4dfe-85d0-9792e744ab11", "symbol": "688329", "name": "Suzhou Iron Technology CO.,LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.196, "architecture_energy": 69.837, "architecture_maturity": 21.552, "architecture_confidence": 83.579, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.98, "rotation_up": 10.33, "upward_expansion": 15.66, "deceleration": 37.69, "rotation_down": 70.5, "downward_expansion": 88.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.036, 19.222522, 20.980481, 22.008843 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.780001, "trend_reference": 23.118371, "distance_from_trend": -0.144403, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.773142, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.000347, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.254344, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.209116, "excess_performance": -0.165912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144403, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024918, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.000347, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176303, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112543, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.209116, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.050395, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8670015, "relative_activity": 1.048612, "balance": 1.050395, "dry_up": 1.190446, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159397, "annualized_volatility": 0.596694, "from_high_reference": -0.381974, "from_low_reference": 0.292811 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.118371, "fair_value_reference": 19.773142, "structural_low": 15.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.037469, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.023425, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.276436, "worst_return": -0.332218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.158306, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.130517, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.136397, "worst_return": -0.242686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.255444, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.265216, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.039161, "worst_return": -0.30705, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 20.549999, "volume": 7379571, "typical_volume": 7846201.9, "trend": 23.612704, "fair_value": 20.085639, "relative_strength": -10.335732, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.140138, "energy": 52.573891, "activity_lines": [ 21.524816, 22.294987, 23.030026, 23.492294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.17, "volume": 9132828, "typical_volume": 7910430.85, "trend": 23.521037, "fair_value": 19.996693, "relative_strength": -15.671323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.421901, "energy": 64.949275, "activity_lines": [ 20.336501, 21.411996, 22.501783, 23.141152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.97, "volume": 12551085, "typical_volume": 8080280.3, "trend": 23.321037, "fair_value": 19.905437, "relative_strength": -26.522346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.789278, "energy": 74.196674, "activity_lines": [ 18.677993, 20.240284, 21.803587, 22.653988 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.709999, "volume": 9016922, "typical_volume": 8173999.35, "trend": 23.168704, "fair_value": 19.825329, "relative_strength": -23.149451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.229107, "energy": 79.277979, "activity_lines": [ 17.726666, 19.361758, 21.223105, 22.227469 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.780001, "volume": 8670015, "typical_volume": 8268086.55, "trend": 23.118371, "fair_value": 19.773142, "relative_strength": -11.254344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.195879, "energy": 69.836621, "activity_lines": [ 18.036, 19.222522, 20.980481, 22.008843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }