{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5d974e5-44cd-4587-bb90-1588f0e4c8c0", "symbol": "GKP", "name": "Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.323, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.694, "architecture_energy": 33.649, "architecture_maturity": 29.322, "architecture_confidence": 88.982, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.73, "rotation_up": 24.0, "upward_expansion": 4.42, "deceleration": 53.86, "rotation_down": 42.91, "downward_expansion": 75.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 173.72, 174.52, 178.295577, 183.238249 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 174.4, "trend_reference": 187.130204, "distance_from_trend": -0.068029, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 151.44355, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.151584, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.023022, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.041558, "excess_performance": -0.107836, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068029, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002315, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.151584, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10507, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13023, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095894, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041558, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.952366, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1871690, "relative_activity": 0.864495, "balance": 0.952366, "dry_up": 1.023755, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067308, "annualized_volatility": 0.344488, "from_high_reference": -0.257717, "from_low_reference": 0.11015 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 187.130204, "fair_value_reference": 151.44355, "structural_low": 160.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.017703, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.043677, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.300607, "worst_return": -0.15987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.068663, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.114213, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.433048, "worst_return": -0.274298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.121404, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.158339, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.106445, "worst_return": -0.297668, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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188.859785, 189.090134 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 177.6, "volume": 330027, "typical_volume": 3115732.9, "trend": 187.056286, "fair_value": 149.276044, "relative_strength": -9.389432, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.092444, "energy": 35.715411, "activity_lines": [ 178.333334, 180.763637, 187.42731, 188.487872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 173.6, "volume": 225199, "typical_volume": 2991373.35, "trend": 187.12415, "fair_value": 149.620556, "relative_strength": -12.745586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.313821, "energy": 42.585186, "activity_lines": [ 176.986667, 178.974546, 185.634654, 187.619724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 171.0, "volume": 2099279, "typical_volume": 2931029.7, "trend": 186.952046, "fair_value": 149.984866, "relative_strength": -12.238619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.566626, "energy": 53.745965, "activity_lines": [ 174.706667, 177.032728, 183.636102, 186.579457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 174.6, "volume": 2258387, "typical_volume": 2811898.85, "trend": 186.999922, "fair_value": 150.361378, "relative_strength": -11.072742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.705211, "energy": 51.903042, "activity_lines": [ 174.333333, 176.152728, 182.106877, 185.78255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 176.8, "volume": 2921623, "typical_volume": 2831692.15, "trend": 187.274431, "fair_value": 150.752632, "relative_strength": -10.87297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.89662, "energy": 41.861944, "activity_lines": [ 174.68, 175.861819, 180.957918, 185.124491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 170.8, "volume": 1814298, "typical_volume": 2617940.95, "trend": 187.162314, "fair_value": 151.06768, "relative_strength": -14.725032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.726055, "energy": 43.534754, "activity_lines": [ 173.373333, 174.72, 179.390656, 184.061624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 174.4, "volume": 1871690, "typical_volume": 2165067.3, "trend": 187.130204, "fair_value": 151.44355, "relative_strength": -13.023022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.694234, "energy": 33.648836, "activity_lines": [ 173.72, 174.52, 178.295577, 183.238249 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }