{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5da6046-4470-43a8-a749-6687a9b7eddf", "symbol": "PRAENG", "name": "Prajay Engineers Syndicate Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.585, "architecture_energy": 24.995, "architecture_maturity": 23.958, "architecture_confidence": 85.831, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.44, "rotation_up": 23.96, "upward_expansion": 8.64, "deceleration": 52.5, "rotation_down": 47.44, "downward_expansion": 72.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.478, 20.517637, 21.056762, 21.184516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.9, "trend_reference": 21.486667, "distance_from_trend": -0.073844, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.980449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.203377, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.627382, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.068788, "excess_performance": -0.025079, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073844, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105753, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.203377, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188681, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156274, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195904, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.068788, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.332411, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 266726, "relative_activity": 1.036617, "balance": 1.332411, "dry_up": 1.814185, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106997, "annualized_volatility": 0.48088, "from_high_reference": -0.412633, "from_low_reference": 0.170588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.486667, "fair_value_reference": 24.980449, "structural_low": 17.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.010453, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.009597, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.363922, "worst_return": -0.203658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010937, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026592, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.653382, "worst_return": -0.37622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.10625, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.163969, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.275, "worst_return": -0.31311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.189024, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.28583, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.9375, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.469421, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100697, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070931, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.303659, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2042, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.18301, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08689, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 22.42, "volume": 1263687, "typical_volume": 272358.95, "trend": 21.827334, "fair_value": 24.890641, "relative_strength": -1.426846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.622794, "energy": 23.412209, "activity_lines": [ 20.78, 20.828727, 21.285857, 21.396344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.26, "volume": 213889, "typical_volume": 255907.55, "trend": 21.616, "fair_value": 24.940064, "relative_strength": -13.305076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.680853, "energy": 25.401358, "activity_lines": [ 20.662667, 20.695818, 21.192095, 21.295226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.9, "volume": 266726, "typical_volume": 257304.3, "trend": 21.486667, "fair_value": 24.980449, "relative_strength": -15.627382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.585073, "energy": 24.995235, "activity_lines": [ 20.478, 20.517637, 21.056762, 21.184516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }