{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5e173af-69a4-4903-93a6-ae74dde0518b", "symbol": "VIS", "name": "Vanguard Industrials Index Fund ETF Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.204, "architecture_energy": 45.696, "architecture_maturity": 60.764, "architecture_confidence": 81.875, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.15, "rotation_up": 43.89, "upward_expansion": 68.36, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 27.38, "downward_expansion": 18.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 6067.834017, 6074.79945, 5994.199598, 5925.157707 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 6199.5, "trend_reference": 5842.048698, "distance_from_trend": 0.061186, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4875.915268, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.271454, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.272808, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.105123, "excess_performance": 0.15979, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061186, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037986, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.271454, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016554, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.072728, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109063, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105123, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.319718, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42, "relative_activity": 0.019107, "balance": 1.319718, "dry_up": 0.152852, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016746, "annualized_volatility": 0.161172, "from_high_reference": -0.009111, "from_low_reference": 0.177723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5842.048698, "fair_value_reference": 4875.915268, "structural_low": 5468.609863, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.01701, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.014806, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.069174, "worst_return": -0.067513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.012868, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.031781, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.127248, "worst_return": -0.098977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019768, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057219, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.176953, "worst_return": -0.191943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.01204, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.146576, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.403153, "worst_return": -0.132835, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016582, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039916, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044309, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035862, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005134, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012523, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023872, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003643, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030854, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", 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"typical_volume": 2488.35, "trend": 5823.089665, "fair_value": 4858.962067, "relative_strength": 2.712716, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.564032, "energy": 42.177569, "activity_lines": [ 6022.080013, 6042.947665, 5962.008447, 5900.87317 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6199.5, "volume": 42, "typical_volume": 2198.2, "trend": 5842.048698, "fair_value": 4875.915268, "relative_strength": 7.272808, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.204284, "energy": 45.695785, "activity_lines": [ 6067.834017, 6074.79945, 5994.199598, 5925.157707 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }