{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5e18b02-bc7c-4d79-85dc-2daa2f78bec8", "symbol": "002500", "name": "Shanxi Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.542, "architecture_energy": 12.913, "architecture_maturity": 29.721, "architecture_confidence": 80.062, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.54, "rotation_up": 30.49, "upward_expansion": 25.37, "deceleration": 49.75, "rotation_down": 19.17, "downward_expansion": 45.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.340667, 5.286651, 5.275372, 5.375844 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.34, "trend_reference": 5.547665, "distance_from_trend": -0.037433, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.625095, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050683, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.65401, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.117355, "excess_performance": -0.124755, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037433, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05269, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050683, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037847, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12654, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124671, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.117355, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.595325, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 93856046, "relative_activity": 0.93263, "balance": 0.595325, "dry_up": 1.19223, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050274, "annualized_volatility": 0.179581, "from_high_reference": -0.22218, "from_low_reference": 0.097257 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.547665, "fair_value_reference": 5.625095, "structural_low": 4.866679, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.007341, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.002378, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.363637, "worst_return": -0.104545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.01178, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.059539, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.396694, "worst_return": -0.145454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.04134, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.102178, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.294973, "worst_return": -0.194978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 5.33, "volume": 125762605, "typical_volume": 102996280.4, "trend": 5.619998, "fair_value": 5.627731, "relative_strength": -11.069432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.972739, "energy": 23.088594, "activity_lines": [ 5.278307, 5.196741, 5.2858, 5.425027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.27, "volume": 135390629, "typical_volume": 101098290.65, "trend": 5.592998, "fair_value": 5.62669, "relative_strength": -11.829596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.222945, "energy": 23.367887, "activity_lines": [ 5.294667, 5.215836, 5.273181, 5.402446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.41, "volume": 124915246, "typical_volume": 101716698.1, "trend": 5.569332, "fair_value": 5.626301, "relative_strength": -7.495985, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.761991, "energy": 17.880004, "activity_lines": [ 5.34, 5.260577, 5.276562, 5.39064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.34, "volume": 93856046, "typical_volume": 100635917.9, "trend": 5.547665, "fair_value": 5.625095, "relative_strength": -12.65401, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.542345, "energy": 12.913309, "activity_lines": [ 5.340667, 5.286651, 5.275372, 5.375844 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }