{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5e20405-65ba-480b-aa8c-dd0b944d078b", "symbol": "XBRK", "name": "Braskem S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.214, "architecture_energy": 73.063, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.631, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.79, "rotation_up": 14.84, "upward_expansion": 14.55, "deceleration": 45.13, "rotation_down": 73.86, "downward_expansion": 90.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.028, 1.090727, 1.308333, 1.420925 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.97, "trend_reference": 1.515667, "distance_from_trend": -0.360018, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.426603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.600264, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.509643, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.37013, "excess_performance": -0.494561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.360018, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007855, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.600264, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199049, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.405096, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.421309, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.37013, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.528207, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18040, "relative_activity": 2.724314, "balance": 1.528207, "dry_up": 0.748167, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173672, "annualized_volatility": 0.760607, "from_high_reference": -0.559091, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.515667, "fair_value_reference": 2.426603, "structural_low": 0.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.053684, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.041828, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 2.311416, "worst_return": -0.300699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.009066, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.13294, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.4519, "worst_return": -0.388514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.129496, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.358854, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 3.575098, "worst_return": -0.419872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.321457, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.500313, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 1.600056, "worst_return": -0.478992, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093496, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019802, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116162, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059172, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052288, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.526718, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.239316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, 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"activity_lines": [ 1.149333, 1.354364, 1.50581, 1.548086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.13, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7050.75, "trend": 1.536667, "fair_value": 2.499872, "relative_strength": -29.479981, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.92739, "energy": 87.795889, "activity_lines": [ 1.118667, 1.284545, 1.459762, 1.521763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.06, "volume": 277, "typical_volume": 6536.1, "trend": 1.531667, "fair_value": 2.475769, "relative_strength": -34.445943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.576636, "energy": 86.914615, "activity_lines": [ 1.096, 1.211091, 1.409238, 1.491011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.0, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 5719.85, "trend": 1.524667, "fair_value": 2.451282, "relative_strength": -38.094234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.724579, "energy": 71.450743, "activity_lines": [ 1.064, 1.144182, 1.357952, 1.45671 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.97, "volume": 18040, "typical_volume": 6621.85, "trend": 1.515667, "fair_value": 2.426603, "relative_strength": -40.509643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.214398, "energy": 73.063409, "activity_lines": [ 1.028, 1.090727, 1.308333, 1.420925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }