{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5e38759-8465-4a82-93ca-2b4e8c6a01c0", "symbol": "XSD2", "name": "Xtrackers ShortDAX x2 Daily Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.602, "architecture_energy": 76.861, "architecture_maturity": 31.891, "architecture_confidence": 93.309, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.76, "rotation_up": 18.2, "upward_expansion": 16.48, "deceleration": 38.58, "rotation_down": 69.24, "downward_expansion": 92.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.400356, 0.408584, 0.422324, 0.435471 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.37938, "trend_reference": 0.445616, "distance_from_trend": -0.148639, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.646925, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.413564, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.830177, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.149334, "excess_performance": -0.200569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148639, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040002, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.413564, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064729, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238302, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139419, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149334, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.694139, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2743613, "relative_activity": 0.279881, "balance": 0.694139, "dry_up": 0.541315, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057791, "annualized_volatility": 0.372665, "from_high_reference": -0.325667, "from_low_reference": 0.005833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.445616, "fair_value_reference": 0.646925, "structural_low": 0.37718, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.020183, "positive_rate": 0.425, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": -0.0178, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.250668, "worst_return": -0.219855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.044902, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.043504, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.132431, "worst_return": -0.228513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.096045, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.201574, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.366207, "worst_return": -0.260528, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 0.42353, "volume": 10046908, "typical_volume": 12325800.45, "trend": 0.450449, "fair_value": 0.657598, "relative_strength": -14.17883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.534197, "energy": 59.098214, "activity_lines": [ 0.417274, 0.422339, 0.437503, 0.445255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4163, "volume": 4552005, "typical_volume": 11353911.55, "trend": 0.448992, "fair_value": 0.654479, "relative_strength": -16.300171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.480081, "energy": 61.060926, "activity_lines": [ 0.416419, 0.420246, 0.433782, 0.443052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.3993, "volume": 3883037, "typical_volume": 10557364.25, "trend": 0.447191, "fair_value": 0.650809, "relative_strength": -20.116489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.22053, "energy": 59.90615, "activity_lines": [ 0.410517, 0.41598, 0.428784, 0.439846 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.37938, "volume": 2743613, "typical_volume": 9802776.6, "trend": 0.445616, "fair_value": 0.646925, "relative_strength": -23.830177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.602498, "energy": 76.860803, "activity_lines": [ 0.400356, 0.408584, 0.422324, 0.435471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }