{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5e5ef57-1ca1-4845-b50d-e43b70b5d49a", "symbol": "AME", "name": "Ametek Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.856, "architecture_energy": 71.164, "architecture_maturity": 20.558, "architecture_confidence": 80.06, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.21, "rotation_up": 74.35, "upward_expansion": 89.81, "deceleration": 43.14, "rotation_down": 11.72, "downward_expansion": 14.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 244.602, 240.470128, 235.659771, 232.556463 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 253.66, "trend_reference": 229.14776, "distance_from_trend": 0.106971, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 183.750749, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.380457, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.056681, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.097136, "excess_performance": -0.028489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.106971, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055687, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.380457, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068515, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060567, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025696, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097136, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.855115, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7649185, "relative_activity": 1.336668, "balance": 1.855115, "dry_up": 1.035853, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042477, "annualized_volatility": 0.206476, "from_high_reference": -0.016612, "from_low_reference": 0.421774 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 229.14776, "fair_value_reference": 183.750749, "structural_low": 207.014576, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.004714, "positive_rate": 0.575758, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.005233, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.096938, "worst_return": -0.066461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.037175, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001944, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.13538, "worst_return": -0.113464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.039793, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.022302, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.232147, "worst_return": -0.151603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 5744765.6, "trend": 227.692321, "fair_value": 183.119537, "relative_strength": 4.875606, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.156851, "energy": 50.234127, "activity_lines": [ 239.334, 236.945382, 233.386128, 230.881129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 253.66, "volume": 7649185, "typical_volume": 5722574.45, "trend": 229.14776, "fair_value": 183.750749, "relative_strength": 6.056681, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.855821, "energy": 71.163633, "activity_lines": [ 244.602, 240.470128, 235.659771, 232.556463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }